President-elect Donald Trump’s nomination of Robert F. Kennedy Jr. to lead the nation’s top health agency sent healthcare stocks sliding last week.
Vaccine makers like Moderna (MRNA) were down more than 5%, while larger companies like Pfizer PFE (PFE) were down about 2%. Some Wall Street analysts said the slide was an overreaction and that it’s too early to tell if or how much Kennedy could impact the healthcare sector since little is known about the controversial pick’s actual policies and he has yet to be confirmed by the US Senate.
If confirmed as secretary of Health and Human Services, Kennedy would oversee the US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) and Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) and the head of the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services (CMS).
JPMorgan healthcare analyst Chris Schott said in a note to clients that the sector is facing “a period of max uncertainty” until the Cabinet position is filled and more is known about Kennedy. But, Schott added, it also means that the large-cap stocks, as a whole, are currently trading at a 35% discount to the S&P 500, leaving room for future upside rather than more downside trading.
Mizuho’s healthcare sector expert Jared Holz said in a note to clients that he agrees with some of the big-picture issues Kennedy has identified, such as America’s obesity epidemic and the dangers of ultra-processed foods.
“The country should be much healthier than it is and there is a ton of room for improvement, including nutrition, food production, consumption, etc. This is a very complicated topic and always has been,” Holz said.
Here’s some of what we do know about Kennedy’s views on major healthcare topics.
-
Vaccines: Known as an anti-vaxxer, Kennedy has questioned the need to vaccinate children and refused to get a COVID-19 vaccine, concerning some Wall Street analysts about his possible effect on the vaccine industry and how he could influence the childhood vaccine schedule, as well as the regulatory process to test and approve vaccines and other treatments. There is also speculation he and Trump’s government efficiency appointees, Elon Musk and Vivek Ramaswamy, could gut the FDA. Vaccine stocks were hurt the most on the news of Kennedy’s nomination, despite him previously saying he wasn’t “taking away” anybody’s vaccines.
-
GLP-1s: RFK has said he doesn’t believe the weekly injectables are the solution to the country’s obesity problem. It is unclear if he could derail current efforts by GLP-1 makers to gain Medicare coverage, which is currently not allowed for obesity. Companies are studying the drugs’ impacts on obesity-related diseases such as heart disease and sleep apnea, which are covered by Medicare and would therefore open up federal dollars for purchase. A recent report showed Medicaid, which would also be under Kennedy’s purview, has contributed significantly to sales of the injectables compared to employer-sponsored and commercial insurance plans. Some analysts fear Kennedy’s positions could limit access to the drugs and levels of coverage, potentially impacting the fortunes of market leaders Eli Lilly (LLY) and Novo Nordisk (NVO). Holz, however, said he “still believes GLP-1s will be the largest therapeutic category by a wide margin despite some comments from RFK noting that Americans should use other non-drug methods in order to lose weight.”
-
Drug pricing: With oversight of the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services, Kennedy would have a chance to negotiate more or less aggressively with pharmaceutical companies than the Biden administration. That is, of course, if the Trump administration chooses to continue exercising the new powers established by the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA). “President Trump will still be focused on this issue and could seek to ‘get a better deal’ via IRA negotiations than the Biden administration,” Leerink Partners said in a note.
-
Food regulations: Kennedy has been vocal about prioritizing the regulation of ultra-processed foods. Studies show these foods are contributing to obesity in the country. It’s a policy the current FDA commissioner, Robert Califf, has already spoken about, and the agency has been looking to issue new rules on labeling, as well as better research on the impacts of these foods. While of more concern to food stocks than healthcare, the issue is related to his stance on obesity and GLP-1s. It is unclear how Kennedy would tackle this issue.