November is here, but hurricane season is far from over. Forecasters are watching a tropical depression in the western Caribbean Sea that’s likely going to develop into Tropical Storm Rafael by Monday afternoon.
The growing system could steadily strengthen into a hurricane by the middle of the week as it heads north through the western Caribbean.
Tropical storm and hurricane watches are in effect for parts of Cuba, while a tropical storm warning is in effect for Jamaica.
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Tropical Depression Eighteen has a high chance of developing into Tropical Storm Rafael later Monday after strengthening from a tropical disturbance into a tropical depression earlier Monday morning.
This system will encounter a generally favourable atmosphere over the western Caribbean as it moves north-northwest over the next couple of days. Forecasters expect the system to steadily strengthen over the next few days as it approaches Jamaica, where a tropical storm warning is currently in effect.
It’s possible that soon-to-be Rafael will strengthen into a hurricane on Wednesday or Thursday, prompting officials to issue a hurricane warning for the Cayman Islands on Monday.
Flooding rains, gusty winds, and coastal flooding are likely for any of the Caribbean islands in the path of the storm.
Soon-to-be Rafael is expected to enter the Gulf of Mexico late Wednesday. It’s still too soon to say where the storm will go from there, and what impacts the storm could bring to the U.S. Gulf Coast. Interests across Florida and throughout the Gulf Coast should keep a close eye on this system’s future development.
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If the depression continues to strengthen as expected, Rafael would be the seventeenth named storm of this active Atlantic hurricane season. The sixteenth storm, Subtropical Storm Patty, was likely to dissipate in the northeastern Atlantic Ocean late Sunday evening.
This has been one of the costliest Atlantic hurricane seasons on record. Hurricane Helene resulted in tens of billions of dollars in damage alone.
The Atlantic hurricane season officially runs through Nov. 30, though it’s still possible for storms to form after that date. Many of the late-season storms we see develop in November form in the Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico, which can reduce the amount of time coastal residents have to prepare before these storms hit land.