(Bloomberg) — Hurricane Milton churned toward Florida’s west coast with winds powerful enough to demolish houses, threatening to unleash once-in-a-century flooding across some of the state’s fastest-growing counties.
Most Read from Bloomberg
Milton’s top winds dropped slightly to 155 miles (250 kilometers) per hour, making it a Category 4 on the five-step Saffir-Simpson scale. It’s forecast to raise the ocean water in Tampa Bay by as much as 15 feet, inundating cities and towns.
The storm will also bring torrential rain, with some areas getting 18 inches, the US National Hurricane Center said in an advisory at 8 a.m. New York time. Power outages lasting days or weeks are expected.
“For this area of Florida – Tampa Bay, Sarasota, Bradenton – this is probably the worst storm even long-time residents of that area have ever seen,” said Dan Pydynowski, a meteorologist at commercial forecaster AccuWeather Inc.
Milton is likely to make landfall late Wednesday or early Thursday at Category 4 just under that threshold, according to AccuWeather. There’s a chance it will strike just south of Tampa Bay, which could lead to winds pushing water west into St. Petersburg, a phenomenon that happened in 2022 when Hurricane Ian struck further south along the coast.
Damages and losses are likely to range from $60 billion to $75 billion, a “major catastrophe,” for the region, said Chuck Watson, a disaster modeler for Enki Research.
Milton will come ashore two weeks after Helene struck Florida farther north on the west coast, triggering flooding across the US South that has killed at least 230 people. Like Ian, which killed more than 150 people two years ago, Milton earlier reached Category 5 strength and is forecast to diminish slightly before landfall.
If Milton makes landfall even as a Category 3, the storm surge could threaten as many as 500,000 residential properties in the Tampa Bay and Sarasota areas, with a reconstruction cost of $123 billion, according to estimates from property data firm CoreLogic. If Milton arrives as a Category 4, 700,000 homes with a cost of $174 billion could be at risk, CoreLogic said.
Those estimates reflect high home values in the Tampa region, as well as its sizable population.
While Milton’s top winds may fall a bit before landfall, it will hold onto its surge as it comes ashore. This occurred with catastrophic storms including Hurricane Katrina in 2005 and Ike in 2008. A storm’s category on the Saffir-Simpson scale isn’t a true predictor of its destructive power.
Residents have begun to flee the coastline, including Tampa, and social media showed scenes of bumper-to-bumper traffic on highways. Officials warned against trying to ride out the storm.
Meanwhile, so many people took to the skies to evacuate that United Airlines Holdings Inc. flights out of Tampa, Orlando, Fort Myers and Sarasota were fully booked through Thursday, the carrier said in a statement. As of 8:20 a.m. New York time, 4,086 flights across the US have been canceled for Wednesday and Thursday, according to FlightAware, an airline tracking service.
To help residents flee by land, Governor Ron DeSantis said roadway tolls have been suspended and shoulders will be used as travel lanes to help people leave.
“Looking at how big this storm is, there’s going to be significant damage in different parts of Florida,” DeSantis said at a news conference Tuesday. In addition to the damage caused by wind and flooding, widespread power outages are likely, said DeSantis, who has declared an emergency in 51 counties.
In addition to fluctuations in its winds, Milton is forecast to spread out in size, bringing devastation to a wider area.
“Milton has the potential to be one of the most destructive hurricanes on record for west-Central Florida,” said Richard Pasch, a meteorologist at the US hurricane center.
As Milton draws closer, the highest wind gusts are expected to extend well inland to near Orlando and encompass roughly the northern two-thirds of the citrus belt, according to Commodity Weather Group.
In addition to Milton, the hurricane center is now watching an area of low pressure off Florida’s east coast that has a 40% chance of becoming a tropical cyclone in the next two days.
–With assistance from Lauren Rosenthal, Mary Hui, Mary Schlangenstein, Ari Natter and Ilena Peng.
Most Read from Bloomberg Businessweek
©2024 Bloomberg L.P.