(Bloomberg) — Hurricane Milton churned toward Florida’s west coast as a dangerous Category 5 storm, with flooding and high winds expected to inflict widespread damage and put lives at risk.
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Milton’s top winds have dipped slightly to 160 miles (260 kilometers) per hour, the US National Hurricane Center said in its advisory at 11 p.m. New York time. While wind speeds may fluctuate until landfall, the storm will still be capable of causing devastation across the Florida peninsula when it arrives Wednesday night, according to the hurricane center.
The hurricane is about 405 miles southwest of the city of Tampa. (To track Hurricane Milton’s latest path toward Florida, click here.)
Milton will strike Florida less than two weeks after Hurricane Helene damaged homes across a broad swath of the state’s west coast. Weary residents have begun to flee the coastline, including Tampa. Florida was set to start free evacuation shuttles in Pinellas, Pasco and Hillsborough counties Tuesday, and social media showed scenes of bumper-to-bumper traffic on highways. Officials warned against trying to ride out the storm.
“This is literally catastrophic,” Tampa Mayor Jane Castor said in an interview with CNN. “I can say this without any dramatization whatsoever: If you choose to stay in one of those evacuation areas, you are going to die.”
While Milton is still a relatively compact hurricane compared with Helene, the storm is quickly growing. Tropical storm-force winds now extend 140 miles from Milton’s center, up from 105 miles earlier in the day.
“Milton’s wind field is expected to grow considerably in size by the time the center moves over Florida,” Richard Pasch, a meteorologist at the hurricane center, said in his outlook. “Damaging winds, life-threatening storm surge, and heavy rainfall will extend well outside the forecast cone.”
Many chose to escape by air. All United Airlines Holdings Inc. flights out of Tampa, Orlando, Fort Myers and Sarasota were fully booked through Thursday, the carrier said in a statement. The airline has booked 25,000 customers from those airports, and is using larger planes for some flights.
About 61% of flights originating at Tampa International Airport were canceled on Tuesday, as have 83% of flights scheduled into the airport, according to FlightAware.com. About a third of flights at Southwest Florida International in Fort Myers have been canceled.
Governor Ron DeSantis said roadway tolls have been suspended and shoulders will be used as travel lanes to help people leave.
“Looking at how big this storm is, there’s going to be significant damage in different parts of Florida,” DeSantis said at a news conference. In addition to the damage caused by wind and flooding, widespread power outages are likely, said DeSantis, who has declared an emergency in 51 counties.
The National Hurricane Center is calling for as much as a 15-foot storm surge into Tampa Bay, which would lead to widespread flooding in the city and surrounding area. The topography is flat and there are many smaller inlets, so the water will be able to spread far and wide, said Tyler Roys, a meteorologist with AccuWeather. Port Tampa Bay has closed to all shipping.
The storm’s economic toll could be severe. Wind and water could damage Florida’s citrus crops, and many businesses — including the state’s iconic theme parks — announced they would close until the hurricane had passed.
Milton likely will cause $60 billion to $75 billion in damage and losses, with some models showing the total could rise as high as $150 billion, Chuck Watson, a disaster modeler at Enki Research, said in an X post.
If Milton makes landfall as a Category 3, the storm surge could threaten as many as 500,000 residential properties in the Tampa Bay and Sarasota areas, with a reconstruction cost of $123 billion, according to estimates from property data firm CoreLogic. If Milton arrives as a Category 4, 700,000 homes with a cost of $174 billion could be threatened, CoreLogic said.
Those estimates reflect high home values in the Tampa region, as well as its sizable population.
“This can become one of the country’s most damaging and costly hurricanes, due to devastating impacts of the storm occurring in densely populated parts of Florida and also areas with particularly expensive property,” said Jonathan Porter, chief meteorologist at commercial forecaster AccuWeather Inc. “We are concerned this could be another very significant impact and economic loss.”
Milton will arrive soon after Hurricane Helene devastated the US South and killed at least 230 people, sparking a wave of disinformation and conspiracy theories. Officials will push to uncover the source of these rumors that have hampered relief efforts, US Federal Emergency Management Agency Administrator Deanne Criswell said.
Disinformation in previous disasters came from US foreign adversaries, Criswell said, and though she doesn’t know if that has been the case for Helene yet, the cause is “certainly something that will be looked into.”
Even though Milton’s top winds have dropped since Monday, the fluctuations won’t affect the storm surge Milton creates, and history has shown many catastrophic hurricanes notched slower peak wind speeds before making landfall — most notably Katrina in 2005. In addition, the hurricane center said Milton may double its physical size by the time it reaches Florida, exacerbating the risk of serious storm surge.
“Milton has the potential to be one of the most destructive hurricanes on record for west-Central Florida,” Pasch said.
As Milton draws closer, the highest wind gusts are expected to extend well inland to near Orlando and encompass roughly the northern half of the citrus belt, according to Commodity Weather Group.
In addition to Milton, the hurricane center is now watching an area of low pressure off Florida’s east coast that has a 30% chance of becoming a tropical cyclone in the next two days.
–With assistance from Michael Smith, Ilena Peng, Allyson Versprille, Mary Schlangenstein, Ari Natter, Mark Chediak, Danny Lee and Ben Sharples.
(Updates throughout.)
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