TOKYO (Reuters) – Japan’s industrial output likely rebounded in September, led by a recovery in auto production, but sustained solid growth may be uncertain on lacklustre global demand, a Reuters poll showed on Friday.
Industrial output was forecast to rise 1.0% in September from the previous month, the poll of 17 analysts found. It dropped 3.3% in August battered by typhoon-led disruptions in auto production and weak U.S. sales.
“Although the U.S. economy is unexpectedly resilient, the global economy as a whole is showing lower growth,” said Takeshi Minami, chief economist at Norinchukin Research Institute.
“Auto exports, Japan’s main export, are sluggish … Production in September is expected to grow only slightly.”
Factory output last month was also likely supported by gains in production of electronic parts and devices on the back of demand increase for semiconductors, the poll showed.
Next week data also includes retail sales, which will likely show a 2.3% gain in September from a year earlier after a revised 3.1% increase in August, the poll found.
Solid demand from inbound tourism continued boosting the nation’s retail sales, analysts expected.
The trade ministry will announce factory output and retail sales at 8:50 a.m. on Oct. 31 (2350 GMT Oct. 30).
Japan’s jobless rate was likely at 2.5% in September, unchanged from August, and the jobs-to-applicants ratio was expected to be steady at 1.23, according to the poll.
The jobs data will be published at 8:30 a.m. on Oct. 29.
The poll also found the Bank of Japan will likely keep short-term rates steady at 0.25% when the bank holds a two-day policy meeting ending on Oct. 31.
The BOJ’s policy decision will come out after Sunday’s general election where new Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba faces a key test on his agenda to prop up wages and revitalise the country’s weak regional economies.
(Reporting by Kaori Kaneko; Editing by Lincoln Feast.)