(Bloomberg) — Japan’s Liberal Democratic Party is set to lose its majority in Sunday’s election, according to a forecast from public broadcaster NHK, leaving in the balance whether the ruling coalition will hold on to power.
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It remains unclear if the LDP and its ruling partner Komeito will secure the 233 seats needed to maintain a majority for their coalition in the lower house of parliament, NHK said based on exit polls. Similar surveys by other media pointed more clearly to the coalition losing its majority.
Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba had aimed to secure at least the majority mark with Komeito, recognizing that the LDP would not retain the 247 seats it held before the election. Falling short of that goal would mark the first time the LDP has lost a coalition majority in an election since 2009.
“If we lose the majority, we’ll seek the cooperation of as many people as possible,” said Shinjiro Koizumi, the LDP’s election point man. He didn’t clarify if he was referring to the LDP’s majority or the coalition’s.
Public support for the LDP has nosedived after revelations last year that party members were secretly enriching themselves with funds from supporters. Nearly every poll before the election suggested the LDP would lose seats and possibly its majority with Komeito due to the slush-fund scandal.
Ishiba took over the party leadership just last month as the LDP looked to make a clean break from the scandal that had eroded the popularity of former Prime Minister Fumio Kishida. He barred 12 lawmakers involved in the scandal from running as LDP candidates in the election, aiming to assert his authority and regain public trust. He may now need their support to remain in power.
“The LDP needs to get over 200 seats, or else it is in trouble,” said Rintaro Nishimura, a Japan associate at The Asia Group, an advisory firm. “The fact that the LDP appears to have lost its majority for first time since 2009 is an indication of how badly the Ishiba administration has rolled out its policies, in addition to the impact of the slush-fund scandal.”
The LDP is on track to win between 153 to 219 seats, according to NHK, compared with 247 when parliament was dissolved for the election. NHK sees the main opposition Constitutional Democratic Party winning 128 to 191 seats.