Weekly jobless claims unexpectedly fell last week in a sign that turnover in the labor market remains low.
New data from the Department of Labor showed 227,000 initial jobless claims were filed in the week ending Oct. 19, down from 241,000 the week prior and below the 242,000 economists had expected, per Bloomberg data.
Thursday’s data shows claims have reversed an upward trend seen in September that had brought the metric to its highest levels in more than a year.
Economists believe the move lower in jobless claims in part reflects a recovery from recent weather disruptions in the data.
“Claims in some states impacted by Hurricane Helene continued to retreat from their recent highs, although claims in Florida rose, likely a result of Hurricane Milton,” Oxford Economics senior US economist Nancy Vanden Houten wrote in a note to clients on Thursday. “With the latest week’s decline, claims are in line with pre-hurricane levels and consistent with a labor market that continues to be characterized by few layoffs.”
The declining amount of weekly unemployment claims falls in line with other labor reports which have shown while the hiring and quit rates have both fallen this year, leading to low worker turnover, layoffs aren’t happening at a rate that is alarming to economists. A similar narrative was revealed within the Federal Reserve’s October Beige Book on Wednesday, which surveys firms within the central bank’s 12 districts.
“Many Districts reported low worker turnover, and layoffs reportedly remained limited,” the report said. “Demand for workers eased somewhat, with hiring focused primarily on replacement rather than growth.”
Thursday’s weekless jobless claims comes ahead of a key week for labor market data leading into the Fed’s November meeting. Next week will bring updates on job openings, as well as both the quits and hiring rate before a crucial October jobs report on Friday Nov. 1.
Consensus currently expects the US economy added 135,000 jobs in October, down from the 254,000 additions seen in September. The unemployment rate is expected to remain flat.
As of Thursday morning, traders are pricing in a 95% chance the Federal Reserve cuts interest rates by 25 basis points at its November meeting, per the CME FedWatch Tool.
Josh Schafer is a reporter for Yahoo Finance. Follow him on X @_joshschafer.
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