(Bloomberg) — The first two years under Donald Trump’s second term could be “quite impactful” if policy changes are made on tax, deregulation and crypto, according to Stefan Gratzer, managing director at J.P. Morgan Private Bank.
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“One really differentiating thing Trump had in his policy was about crypto, so let’s see how this plays out,” Gratzer, who is head of institutional wealth management for Switzerland at J. P. Morgan, told a conference in Kuwait on Sunday. “This could be completely new, and nobody knows what this is going to mean. There’s a lot of talk about deregulation that is obviously beneficial for banks like us at the moment but again, we need to see.”
Optimism has been high that Trump’s pro-growth promises, built around tax cuts and deregulation, will unlock another round of gains in an already flourishing economy, just as the Federal Reserve tilts toward an easy-money stance. Many expect Trump’s policy promises, including a flurry of tax cuts, to turbo-charge economic growth, driving new business for lenders.
Gratzer said Trump’s plans to cut taxes are key. “If you buy a share of the company, you’re obviously buying their earnings in the future minus the tax. If the tax is lower, your share price is higher. I think that’s a bit what we’ve seen in the last week.”
“He obviously has the House and the Senate now on his side, so it could be that for the next two years we see this direction,” Gratzer said, while noting that after midterm elections in 2026, it could be “not so easy to do those things.”
Republicans in the US regained control of the Senate in last week’s elections and are favored to retain their majority in the House, although some races are still undecided.
Technology Pipeline
Separately, J.P. Morgan Private Bank is seeing demand from clients in the Middle East and North Africa that “reflects our pipeline in technology, especially AI,” Gratzer told the MoneyTech event.
Energy markets and the energy transition are “really relevant” in the region both in terms of technology and transport, namely electric vehicles, according to Gratzer. Luxury is another area on which clients are focusing, while defense and education need increased investment too. Opportunities also lie in the healthcare sector, Gratzer said.
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