Forecasters are increasingly concerned over the risk for “life-threatening, potentially catastrophic flash flooding and mudslides” as Tropical Storm Sara swirls in the western Caribbean this week.
The storm will move very slowly as it brushes Honduras through this weekend, producing multiple days of torrential rains across the mountainous region.
Sara’s future track will likely take the system into the Gulf of Mexico early next week, where it faces an uncertain future.
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Tropical Storm Sara formed in the western Caribbean on Thursday, right about where you would expect to see a system develop this late in the hurricane season. Waters are exceptionally warm in the Caribbean right now.
The storm will hug the coast of northern Honduras and move very little over the next few days. A large centre of high pressure north of Sara will force the system to sit in virtually the same location for several days.
While interaction with land will likely keep Sara a tropical storm through the weekend, a system doesn’t need to grow into a hurricane to produce significant impacts on land.
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The National Hurricane Center (NHC) expects “life-threatening, potentially catastrophic flash flooding and mudslides” across northern Honduras as Sara wrings out copious amounts of tropical rainfall over the region.
Weather models are consistently showing totals in excess of 500 mm across portions of northern Honduras, with the potential for 700+ mm in some locations. This amount of rain in just a few days will lead to devastating floods for communities throughout the region.
The ridge of high pressure keeping Sara locked in place will begin to move later this weekend, allowing the storm to start inching west toward Mexico’s Yucatan Peninsula. Forecasters expect Sara to emerge in the southern Gulf of Mexico early next week.
Beyond that, its future is still highly uncertain. Interests in Florida should closely monitor the latest forecast updates with this system for potential impacts from rain and wind at some point next week.
Header satellite image courtesy of NOAA.
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