Is the Premier League title race almost over?
Liverpool’s win against Southampton on Sunday moved them eight points clear in top spot.
Only once has a team had a bigger lead after 12 games and that was Manchester United. Clear by nine, they went on to win the title in the 1993-94 season.
Two other teams have led by eight points at this stage – Manchester City in 2017-18 and Liverpool in 2019-20 – and both were also crowned champions.
Liverpool’s haul of 31 points from the opening 12 matches has only been equalled or bettered 10 times in Premier League history. Eight of those clubs went on to win the title, with only Arsenal in 2022-23 and Newcastle in 1995-96 not celebrating at the end of the season after such an impressive start.
There are more good signs for Liverpool as they bid to end Manchester City’s run of four successive title triumphs. Never before has a team lost five matches in a row – City’s current run – and become champions.
If Arne Slot’s side beat City at Anfield on Sunday, they would be 11 points clear of the holders – a deficit of that size has only been clawed back three times in the Premier League.
“If you play in this league like this with so many quality teams you have to keep winning, because if you don’t the other ones will,” Slot told BBC Sport. “That’s what we try to do every game.”
Former City defender Nedum Onuoha told BBC Radio 5 Live: “I would be surprised if Liverpool don’t go on and win the league this year because they feel like the most well-rounded team. They are getting enough points on the board now to make their task for the final stretch of the season easier.”
Title race over then right? Not necessarily.
Has Liverpool’s start to the season been relatively favourable? Opta have calculated the Reds had the sixth easiest first 10 fixtures out of any of the Premier League sides.
City’s start though was ranked as the fifth easiest, with the Gunners at the other end of the scale with the seventh toughest fixtures.
The lowest points tally a team had after 12 games but still went on to win the title was Manchester United with 19 in 1997. Pep Guardiola’s men lifted the crown in 2021 from having just 20 points at this stage.
Four teams below Liverpool this season have more than that tally.
City and Arsenal – eight and nine points behind respectively – would also rightly highlight there are still 26 matches left to play and bigger leads have been lost before.
We look at the biggest deficits to have been clawed back by Premier League winners.
Arsenal 1997-98 – 13 points
This should give hope to Gunners fans.
Arsenal have the record for the greatest points deficit recovered to win the title when they came from 13 behind Manchester United in 1997-98.
They looked out of the title race when they trailed by such a distance in late December – and were still behind by 12 points in February.
Arsene Wenger’s side won the title by a point.
Man Utd 1992-93 – 12 points
On December 5, Alex Ferguson’s Manchester United were seventh in the table – 12 points behind leaders Norwich City.
But, inspired by Eric Cantona, they were top by mid-January after a dramatic slump in form from the Canaries.
United eventually won the league by 10 points – although it was a 22-team competition back then.
Man Utd 1995-96 – 12 points
Another season, another comeback from Ferguson’s side.
On 21 January, they trailed Kevin Keegan’s Newcastle by 12 points after 23 matches.
United ended up lifting the title after a final-day win against Middlesbrough.
Man Utd 1996-97 – 10 points
Yep. Them again.
On 17 December, United were seventh in the table and 10 points behind leaders Liverpool.
To be fair, they did have two games in hand and eventually won the title by seven points from Newcastle.
Their haul of 75 points remains the fewest ever recorded by the title winners in the Premier League era.
Man Utd 2002-03 – 10 points
In mid-November 2002, United trailed leaders Arsenal by 10 points and were still eight behind in late March.
An 18-match unbeaten finish to the season saw United come through.
Man Utd 2008-09 – 10 points
While United were 10 points behind leaders Liverpool on 18 December, they had three games in hand due to their involvement in the Club World Cup.
They went on to win the title by four points.
Man City 2018-19 – 10 points
Some much-needed hope for City fans.
Liverpool looked in control as they led the league by 10 points on on 29 December, having gone unbeaten in 20 matches – although they had played one more game.
A stunning second half of the season, though, saw Guardiola’s men win the title by a point.
Stats courtesy of Opta