Michel Barnier is facing a battle to survive until Christmas as polls show more than half of the nation back a no-confidence vote in France’s new prime minister.
According to a survey published on Saturday in La Tribune Dimanche, 53 per cent of respondents want to oust the former Brexit negotiator just months after he was appointed.
“It’s a return to square one,” said Brice Teinturier, deputy CEO of polling company Ipsos. “We find ourselves in the same situation as five months ago, the day after the second round of the legislative elections. The lines are not moving.”
As an Alpine mountaineer accustomed to scaling summits, “le Savoyard”, as the lanky 73-year-old is known, is facing a Mont-Blanc of domestic difficulties as he seeks to pass a budget to avoid financial meltdown amid spiralling French deficit and debt.
To make matters worse, French unions have called strikes and demonstrations across various sectors starting this week.
Farmers furious at stifling norms, unfair competition and an impending EU trade deal with South American countries, were the first to act.
Militant union Coordination Rurale dumped manure in front of state buildings, blocked the Spanish border and the port of Bordeaux with tractors and threatened to “starve Toulouse”.
It took a personal phone call from Barnier to their leader promising instant action for pressure to drop.
More industrial action is threatened in the festive season among railway workers, teachers, civil servants, airline pilots, flight attendants and company employees amid a wave of redundancies.
Meanwhile, populist figurehead Marine Le Pen this week threatened to plant “the kiss of death” on Mr Barnier’s fragile coalition government by joining the opposition Left in a no-confidence vote if her National Rally (RN) party’s cost-of-living concerns were not incorporated into the 2025 budget.
“We will not accept that the purchasing power of the French be once again hit. This is a red line and if this red line is crossed, we will vote no-confidence,” Ms Le Pen told RTL radio.
After Emmanuel Macron’s disastrous decision to hold snap legislative elections in July, parliament has been split into three blocs – a Left-wing coalition called the New Popular Front, Ms Le Pen’s populists and a third containing centrist pro-Macron MPs in a fractious alliance with Right-wing Republicans.
President Macron appointed Mr Barnier on the proviso his government receive Ms Le Pen’s tacit blessing. The Eurosceptic agreed to offer the Gaullist a stay of execution as part of her drive to depict herself and her RN party as a responsible and constructive opposition force.
Mr Barnier took up his post by promising to stem state profligacy that has shaken market confidence in the eurozone’s second-largest economy and seen borrowing costs approach those of Greece and Italy.
“If we don’t act, our country will be on the brink,” he warned last month, announcing plans to save €60 billion by slashing spending by €40 billion mainly in central and local government, and slapping some €20 billion in new taxes on businesses and the wealthy.
France’s budget deficit is set to hit 6.2 per cent of GDP in 2025 – the eurozone’s highest after Romania.
Despite a string of concessions and sweeteners, his unpopular plans for tax hikes and spending cuts have twice been blocked in the National Assembly.
As a result, Mr Barnier conceded he will “probably” have to use the nuclear option of ramming the budget bill through the legislature without a vote. That would inevitably trigger a no-confidence vote that the RN and the Left could use to bring down the government.
“He’ll fall between 15 and 21 December,” predicted Jean-Luc Mélenchon, firebrand figurehead of the France Unbowed party that dominates the Left-wing parliamentary alliance.
Some analysts have suggested Ms Le Pen’s legal woes could accelerate her plans to bring down the government.
Last week, prosecutors called for an obligatory five-year ban from public office for her alleged role in embezzling EU funds. She denies the allegations. If judges convict Ms Le Pen early next year and uphold the sentence, she would be barred from running in the 2027 presidential election which polls suggest she could win.
However, there are other reasons to jettison Mr Barnier, say RN insiders, who point to two polls out this week, one suggesting 73 per cent of RN supporters disapprove of the Barnier government, another showing that 61 per cent back a no-confidence vote.
They warn there is a danger the RN could become tarred by the Barnier brush and lose ground to the Left in the battle to claim the mantle of France’s main opposition force.
“Our electorate is revolutionary; they want us to censor the government,” one party leader told Le Figaro.
They are also uneasy at allowing Bruno Retailleau, Mr Barnier’s hardline interior minister, to steal their thunder on immigration, law and order.
But the Barnier camp question whether RN would run the risk of appearing as the harbingers of chaos by bringing the government down at this delicate juncture.
Jean-Noel Barrot, the French foreign minister, told CNews: “Those who would topple the government will deprive the country of a budget and create disorder and ‘chienlit’ [a term used by General de Gaulle meaning havoc or chaos].”
Edouard Philippe, President Macron’s former prime minister, offered a similarly stark assessment.
“If we don’t stabilise the political situation, we’ll have a serious crisis that won’t just be political. Given the state of our finances, I guarantee that a political crisis will trigger a financial crisis,” he warned.
Breaking his silence over the issue, Mr Macron called for “stability” while on tour in South America.
Mr Barnier may offer Ms Le Pen concessions by cutting a rise in electricity prices when the pair meet next Monday. Jordan Bardella, her protégé and RN party chairman, has said the no-confidence decision will depend on whether the final cut of the budget reflects their demands.
Even if the government is toppled, analysts say no other force is in a position to forge a parliamentary majority, meaning that the President may be forced to simply reinstate Mr Barnier and his cabinet and carry on. The only other option would be a technical government.
Reportedly weary and frustrated after weeks of fruitless efforts to secure a budget bill, Mr Barnier remained sanguine about his political future.
“I’m ready to leave tomorrow. I’m 73 today. I’ll be 76 in 2027. I don’t need to be reminded of my age,” he said this week.