A look at the day ahead in European and global markets from Tom Westbrook
Gravity brought China’s soaring stock market back to earth with a thud on Wednesday. Disappointment about the lack – so far – of follow-through on stimulus promises has triggered a pullback in a spectacular rally and could be a harbinger of further weakness in China-exposed assets trading in London and Europe.
At the time of writing, the Shanghai Composite was down more than 5% and headed for its largest slump since the pandemic collapse of February 2020.
A bounce in Hong Kong was quickly snuffed out. Metals and other commodities were on the slide along with China proxies such as the Australian dollar. [.HK][MET/L][AUD/]
China watchers say yesterday’s National Development and Reform Commission news conference was never going to be the forum for a substantial policy announcement.
“More patience please,” noted HSBC economist Jing Liu in a note pointing out that we are yet to hear from the State Council or the finance ministry on the specifics of stimulus.
But, clearly, the opportunity to reassure markets has been missed and the rally is unlikely to be sustainable until authorities show investors the money, and lots of it.
China volatility already pulled down European miners and luxury stocks on Tuesday but further drops in the iron ore price and selling of Rio Tinto and BHP shares in Sydney suggest more pressure ahead. [.AX][.L][.EU]
Elsewhere the New Zealand dollar slid through its 200-day moving average as the central bank cut interest rates by 50 basis points and left the door open to further cuts – just as markets are paring back their expectations for U.S. rate cuts.
Indian government bonds rallied after FTSE Russell said they would be included in its emerging markets’ index. South Korean government bonds were added to the FTSE World Government Bond Index (WGBI) but were not traded owing to a public holiday.
Minutes for September’s Federal Reserve meeting are due later in the session, though they may not add much since Fed officials have been out in force in recent days pointing out last week’s strong jobs reading is positive for the economy.
Key developments that could influence markets on Wednesday:
– German trade data
– September Federal Reserve minutes
(Editing by Muralikumar Anantharaman)