Vaughn Dalzell breaks his three favorite player props, plus a game pick in Kings at Lakers.
Jimmy Butler O/U 17.5 Points at Hornets
Jimmy Butler opened the season with three points on 1-for-8 shooting and two free-throw attempts. Miami lost 116-97 and he played 26 minutes. That was as disappointing as it gets.
However, Jimmy Buckets should bounce back because he gets to face the Hornets! Butler has scored at least 15 points in 17 consecutive games against Charlotte and 18-plus points in 14 of those 17 games. This is a quality opponent for Butler to torment and get to the free-throw line.
The Hornets have allowed 58 free-throw attempts in two games and that’s the simplest way for Butler to get his shot to fall. I played Butler Over 17.5 Points at -111 odds. The best line I could find was on FanDuel. I expect Butler to go for 20-plus points (+135).
Pick: Jimmy Butler Over 17.5 Points (1.5u)
Cade Cunningham O/U 36.5 PRA vs. Celtics
Cade Cunningham is coming off a terrific outing last night of 33 points, 6 assists, and 4 rebounds in Cleveland. Cunningham is playing his first back-to-back of the season and we have to remember that he missed 20 games last year and 72 the year prior due to injuries.
In addition, Detroit is playing Boston! The Celtics have been a tank through two games. Plus, chances are Cunningham won’t play many minutes in the fourth quarter after putting up 41 and 43 PRA against the Pacers and Cavaliers.
Cunningham totaled 27 and 46 PRA in two meetings with the Celtics last year. The 46 PRA effort came in OT on 43 minutes played, and that was Detroit’s NBA record 28th-straight loss, so there was something on the line.
I took Cunningham Under 36.5 PRA at -118 odds on FanDuel and would play Under 35.5 PRA for 1.5 units as well.
Pick: Cade Cunningham Under 36.5 PRA (1.5u)
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Josh Giddey O/U 12.5 Points vs. Thunder
Betting on the Chicago Bulls has already started as a mystery this season, but I like Josh Giddey to be aggressive and motivated against his former team.
Lonzo Ball made a return to the Bulls but missed last night’s game and Zach LaVine missed 57 games last season, so both players could either be out or limited, leaving room for Giddey to eat up. The 22-year-old Giddey had 17 points, 9 assists, and 6 rebounds last night in a win over the Bucks.
Giddey averaged 25.1 minutes for Oklahoma City last year and 24.6 minutes with no rest. He’s played 30 and 24 minutes through two games with Chicago and besides the team’s hot shooting last night, I believe the Bulls limited Giddey to 24 minutes in order to increase his usage tonight.
I played Giddey Over 12.5 Points at -105 odds on BetMGM and would go up to 13.5 for +100 or better. The Over 12.5 Points is juiced to -120 or -135 at other shops.
Pick: Josh Giddey Over 12.5 Points (1u)
Kings at Lakers (-2): O/U 232.5
The Kings have a slight rest advantage here, which could be enough to knock off the 2-0 Lakers from the undefeated ranks.
Los Angeles was 7-13 ATS (35%) and 10-10 on the ML (50%) when they were at a rest disadvantage and even worse 9-14 ML the year prior (9-13-1 ATS). Sacramento went 14-7-1 ATS (66.7%) last season with a rest advantage, which was the third-best mark in the NBA.
Anthony Davis has been amazing for the Lakers thus far (35.5 PPG, 12.0 RPG), but someone else will have to step up here and the 39-year-old LeBron James on the second night of a back-to-back isn’t likely the secondary option in the third game of the season.
The line has been moving slightly in the Kings’ direction and I will buy into that as the Lakers continually disappoint in this spot whereas the Kings excel. Give me Sacramento +1 (-110) or sprinkle the ML at +100.
Pick: Kings +1 (1u)
Season Record: 11-5 (68.7%) +6.65u
Sprinkles
Jimmy Butler First Basket (+550) and 20-plus points (+145)
Jimmy Butler is coming off his lowest scoring performance since 2021. He might torch the Hornets for way more than 20 points if he gets the first bucket.
Josh Giddey First Basketball (+1300)
Revenge angle on his former team at home after being traded. The price is nice. FanDuel odds.
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