Thursday, November 21, 2024

NBA power rankings 2024-25: Undefeated Cavaliers capture top spot

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The most challenging part of putting together these 2024-25 NBA Power Rankings is the conference imbalance we see in the standings. This week, I have the Kings and Spurs in the “Playoffs or Bust” level of teams expecting to make the postseason, but in reality, the Kings would be the 10 seed, while the Mavericks and Spurs would be out altogether. In the East, Dallas would be a top-six seed, which is why, after Cleveland and Boston, no other East team appears in these rankings until the Knicks at 14.

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1. Cleveland Cavaliers (12-0, Last Week No. 3). Only seven other teams in NBA history have started 12-0 to start the season, among them the 1993-94 Rockets and the 1996-97 Bulls that went on to win the NBA title (two others are the 1957-58 Celtics and the 73-win 2015-16 Warriors, both of whom lost in the Finals). Talking about games in June is a long way off, but the Cavaliers should be considered a favorite to win the NBA Cup in the shorter term. If they are going to do so, they have to keep knocking down 3s at their league-best rate of 41.3% from deep. The biggest game in NBA Cup East Group C is next Tuesday when the Cavaliers face the Celtics.

2. Golden State Warriors (9-2, LW 5). No more questions about the soft schedule as the Warriors knocked off the Celtics, Thunder and defending West champ Mavericks in the past week — their defense and depth are for real. An example of that depth is Trayce Jackson-Davis, who has started at center, but Kevon Looney has played key minutes off the bench and has closed games, including getting a couple of big putback buckets late against the Celtics. With their depth of talent and defense, Golden State should be the Western Conference favorite in the NBA Cup.

3. Oklahoma City Thunder (9-2, LW 1). How do you feel about small ball, Thunder fans? Chet Holmgren’s hip injury (out until after the All-Star break) is a double punch to the gut because Isaiah Hartenstein and Jaylin Williams also are both out, leaving OKC incredibly thin along the front line. In their win over the Clippers this week, nobody over 6’6″ got any meaningful run for OKC. While Ousmane Dieng may get a little more playing time down the line, the Thunder are going to go small and quick, at least until Hartenstein returns (Thanksgiving, or maybe a little after).

4. Phoenix Suns (9-2, LW 4). Kevin Durant being out for a few weeks with a strained calf will be tough for Phoenix, but maybe not for the reason you think. It’s not simply because he’s the team’s leading scorer at 27.6 points a game, shooting 42.9% from 3 and adding 6.6 rebounds and 3.4 assists a night (although that’s part of it). It’s also because, at the time of his injury, the Suns were 7-0 in clutch games this season (games within five points in the final five minutes), and Durant has scored more points in the clutch (35) than any player in the league. What happened in the first game he missed? The Suns lost a clutch game to the Kings (in OT). The Suns are on the road for their next three games this week.

5. Boston Celtics (9-3, LW 2). The Celtics getting beat at home by a shorthanded Hawks team drops Boston to 3-2 at home to start the season — they won their first 20 home games a season ago. There are excuses — Jaylen Brown missed time and Kristaps Porzingis is out — but the Celtics seem to be in a bit of a funk, for them, or maybe we call it a championship hangover. Boston getting upset in its first NBA Cup game means that to advance out of group play to the knockout round it needs to beat Cleveland next Tuesday in a huge game, win-out to go 3-1 in the group stage, and have a couple of blowouts in there (point differential is a tiebreaker).

FRINGE CONTENDERS

6. Denver Nuggets (7-3, LW 11). Going into the season, I was in the “it’s going to be really hard for Nikola Jokic to win another MVP award” camp — the stumbles of the Nuggets in the postseason and the historical weight of him winning a fourth MVP would give voters pause. He would have to blow away the field to have a chance. Well, Jokic is averaging 29.7 points, 13.7 rebounds and 11.7 assists a game — he leads the NBA in rebounds and assists a game and is fourth in points per game. If he were to average a triple-double and lead the league in all those categories… it might be hard not to vote for him (it is a regular season award). Denver is on the road for its next 6-of-8, which will test this team.

7. Minnesota Timberwolves (6-5, LW 7). Anthony Edwards is playing like a wannabe Splash Brother this season — he leads the NBA in total made 3-pointers and is third in the total number of 3-pointers attempted. He is averaging 11.8 3-point attempts a game and is shooting 45.8% on them. For some context, Stephen Curry was the only player to shoot 11.8 (or more) 3-pointers a game last season and he hit 40.8% from deep. The change in his shot diet has led some to criticize Ant for not getting downhill and attacking the rim more, something he does as well as any player in the league. When asked what he would say to those critics, Edwards said,” F*** them.” It’s the right attitude — you wouldn’t tell Curry to shoot fewer 3s, and as long as Ant is hitting them at this rate, fire away.

8. Dallas Mavericks (5-6, LW 6). Dallas has lost three games in a row — by a total of six points. Their last five losses are by a total of 13 points (that’s what keeps them higher in this ranking than their record would indicate). The Mavericks are 1-5 in clutch games this season (games within five points in the final five minutes) with a -31 net rating. Turn that around and it will boost Luka Doncic’s MVP case. Fun showdown with the Thunder on Sunday.

PLAYOFFS OR BUST

9. Houston Rockets (7-4, LW 8). Houston made its run after the All-Star break last season based on defense, and it is off to a strong start for the same reason — the Rockets are third in the league defensively to start the season. They are doing it the old-school way — protect the paint. Teams are shooting 52.1% against the Rockets inside 10 feet, second best in the NBA. Combine that with a physical defense that likes to run teams off the 3-point line and you have something sustainable in Houston.

10. Memphis Grizzlies (7-4, LW 13). Ja Morant being out for a couple of weeks — in addition to Desmond Bane, Marcus Smart, GG Jackson and others — is rough for the Grizzlies, but they have been winning the non-Morant minutes this season. Memphis is +5.2 points per 100 possessions with Morant off the court this season, and the team is 2-0 since he went down, although that was against Washington and Portland. Things get much tougher this week with a grudge match against the Lakers (expect plenty of too-small gestures) followed by the red-hot Warriors, then two against Denver.

11. Sacramento Kings (6-5, LW 10). It feels like this got overlooked last week — Domantas Sabonis had a perfect triple-double last week: 17 points on 6-of-6 shooting with 13 assists, 10 rebounds and zero turnovers or personal fouls. Give the man his flowers. Sixth Man of the Year candidate Malik Monk is out for a couple of weeks, which is a blow to Sacramento’s depth. The good news is the Kings are home for 6-of-7, but this week’s schedule is not easy with the Suns and Timberwolves coming to town.

12. Los Angeles Lakers (6-4, LW 12). The Lakers have been inconsistent and the reason is simple: They are 26th in the NBA in defense (and nearly three points per 100 possessions worse than a season ago). The Lakers are middle of the pack in the league in half-court defense, the problem is teams are running right past them — the Lakers have the worst transition defense in the league (142.6 net rating), and opponents start 18.2% of their possessions against the Lakers in transition, the second highest number in the league (stats via Cleaning the Glass). The Lakers are simply getting run off the court some nights. The Lakers understand their defensive shortcomings and continue to be interested in a traditional center to play next to Anthony Davis once the trade market opens up and guys such as Jonas Valenciunas become available.

13. Los Angeles Clippers (6-5, LW 14). Norman Powell has been one of the best surprises of the season. The UCLA alum is averaging 26 points a game, shooting an insane 50.5% from 3, and is providing the secondary offensive punch the Clippers need next to James Harden. Once Leonard gets back — don’t ask when, you’ll just get a shrug — the Clippers could have a dangerous offense if Powell can keep this up. Ty Lue’s Clippers are a hard team to play against, opponents are finding out the hard way.

14. New York Knicks (5-5, LW 9). In an Eastern Conference where it is Cleveland and Boston and then a cliff, the Knicks are starting to look like the team that could climb up into that No. 3 spot and find a home. The Knicks have a +4.9 rating, which suggests they should be at least 6-4, but they have just been a little unlucky so far. Tuesday night’s win over the 76ers — behind an impressive game from OG Anunoby — puts New York in a strong position to take East Group A in the NBA Cup, getting them to the knockout round and one win from a trip to Vegas. New York needs to knock off Brooklyn and shorthanded Orlando to make it happen, but they are poised to make that run.

15. San Antonio Spurs (5-6, LW 16). Our thoughts are all with Gregg Popovich as he recovers from his stroke. Take your time, do what is best for you. As for the Spurs on the court, it felt like we needed to have a conversation about what happened to Victor Wembanyama’s offensive game through the first nine games of the season, but the last two — 24 points against the Jazz, 34 against the Kings, shooting 56.8% with a dozen 3-pointers made — he has looked more like the Wemby we expected this season. The Spurs wanted him to take more 3s this season and he has leaned into that — 47.4% of his shot attempts are from beyond the arc, but hitting just 31.3% of them on the season. It’s led to questions about his shot selection playing next to Chris Paul, but maybe things are finding their level. He’s still a defensive force and leads the league averaging 3.9 blocked shots a game.

16. Indiana Pacers (5-5, LW 17). Injuries continue to hit this team hard with Aaron Nesmith and Andrew Nembhard being out (plus every reserve big man), but if that means more minutes for Bennedict Mathurin, then that could be a silver lining. He’s been on a tear: In his last six games he has averaged 24.2 points a game, is shooting 56% from 3 (on 4.2 attempts a game), and is grabbing 8.2 assists a night. The Pacers have won 3-of-4 and looked good against the weak Knicks defense, with Tyrese Haliburton putting up 35 points with 14 assists. Two games against the Heat this week should be interesting (one of them an NBA Cup game).

17. Orlando Magic (6-6, LW 21). After dropping their first four games without Paolo Banchero the Magic have turned around and won three straight (against the Pelicans, Wizards and Hornets, but don’t question where the wins come from). While Banchero being out has dragged down the offense (25th in the league since he went out), the defense remains elite, the best in the league over the past seven games. Keep playing that way on that end of the court and the Magic can keep their head above water — especially in this East — until Banchero returns.

18. Miami Heat (5-5, LW 15). Miami has dropped 4-of-5 (all on the road), the last one of those in ugly fashion when a frustrated Erik Spoelstra called a timeout in overtime despite his team being out of them, a technical foul that gave Detroit what proved to be the game-winning free throw. Heat fans looking for a bright side while Jimmy Butler remains out (ankle), there is the play of Jaime Jaquez Jr. off the bench, giving the team 9 points and 7.2 rebounds a game.

19. Brooklyn Nets (5-6, LW 18). Nic Clayton has moved into the starting lineup — Brooklyn brought him along slowly following a hamstring injury — and in the four games since the move the Nets have a top-10 defense. On the other end of the court, Cam Thomas leads the team in scoring (24.5 points per game), but it’s a strong start to the season from Dennis Schroder that has been the driving force of the offense. Schroder leads the Nets in passes made and passes received this season, a sign he is the hub of the offense (which is going to up his trade value as teams watch Brooklyn with an eye toward the trade deadline in February).

PLAY IN HOPEFULS

20. Detroit Pistons (5-7, LW 23). The Pistons are fast becoming a League Pass favorite in the Helin household — they play hard on defense (credit J.B. Bickerstaff) and Cade Cunningham is taking a nice step forward this season. They also are about to get a boost off the bench with the return of Ausar Thompson, who has been out since last March with a blood clot issue. His return is one of the better stories of the young season.

21. Atlanta Hawks (5-7, LW 19). Tuesday night’s win on the road in Boston to open the NBA Cup was the best win of the season for Atlanta — and it came without Trae Young in the lineup. (That’s not to say the Hawks are better without Young, while the team has a -2.8 net rating when he’s playing that jumps to -10.6 when he sits.) The other bright spot for Atlanta this week was rookie Zaccharie Risacher dropping 33 on the Knicks and showing his potential.

22. Charlotte Hornets (4-7, LW 26). First-year head coach Charles Lee is leaning hard into LaMelo Ball — he is ninth in the league in touches per game (89.1), is seventh in the league in passes received a game, and is third in the league in scoring at 29.9 points a game. Ball has been fairly efficient considering the volume asked of him, shooting 37.5% from 3 and with a 58.7 true shooting percentage that is just above the league average. It’s an interesting week ahead with games against the Bucks and Nets, two teams the Hornets could be battling with for a play-in spot at the end of the season.

23. Chicago Bulls (4-7, LW 20). Chicago made a bet this offseason on Patrick Williams, signing him to a five-year, $90 million contract, and the early returns are not promising. His scoring is down, but more importantly, his shooting has taken a step back — 35.5% from 3 (down from 39.9 last season) and, worse yet, 34% on two-point shots. If you’re looking for bright spots in Chicago, Zach LaVine is back from injury and Nikola Vucevic has been very efficient this season.

24. Milwaukee Bucs (3-8, LW 25). The Bucks signing Gary Trent Jr. was heralded by many pundits (*raises hand*) as one of the most underrated moves of the offseason. Then the games started. Trent’s offensive game has fallen off a cliff: He shot 39.3% from 3 a season ago, that dropped to 29.5% this season; he has scored at least 13.7 points a game each of the last five seasons, this season it’s down to 7.3%; his usage rate, assist percentage, rebounding, pretty much every aspect of his game outside his on-ball defense collapsed. Doc Rivers stepped in and inserted Andre Jackson Jr. into the starting lineup, then Jackson sat out a couple of games with a back issue. The Bucks are entering a softer part of the schedule, they need to turn things around now.

25. Philadelphia 76ers (2-8, LW 24). Losing Tyrese Maxey for a couple of weeks (hamstring strain) is a cruel joke by the basketball gods, dong that just as Paul George and Joel Embiid return. Embiid looked understandably rusty in his return to the court (2-of-11 shooting and he struggled with the range and mobility of Karl-Anthony Towns) but seeing him out there was also a reminder how much Philly needs him out there — the entire theory of their case is Embiid is an unstoppable force. My question while watching this team for the first three weeks (and in person last week) is: Do the 76ers have enough around their three stars to win? In a league where depth, and particularly depth of shot creation, really matters, Philadelphia has felt exposed. To be fair, we need to give them time to see what this all looks like, and more time now with Maxey out.

CAPTURE THE (COOPER) FLAGG

26. New Orleans Pelicans (3-8, LW 22). The way things are going with the Pelicans, you are right to fear you could sprain an ankle just reading this. The Pelicans current injury list is extensive: Zion Williamson (hamstring), Jose Alvarado (hamstring), Dejounte Murray (hand), CJ McCollum (adductor), Herb Jones (shoulder) and Jordan Hawkins (back). The team’s slow start could lead to some tough conversations about when to throw in the towel on this season and look to the draft, and with that maybe become sellers at the trade deadline.

27. Portland Trail Blazers (4-8, LW 27). How are things in Portland? Here is Chauncey Billups after a 45-point loss to Memphis: “It was just f****** embarrassing, to be honest with you. We were soft as hell the whole game. Nobody really fought. It was just embarrassing. That’s just not who we are. There’s no excuse for that. You have a lot of rough nights in this league, obviously. But I don’t even care. This wasn’t even that. Guys showed up because they had to be here but they didn’t want to play. They didn’t want to actually work. That’s embarrassing… I told [the team postgame] that anybody that sleeps well tonight, you’re a loser. It’s that simple. You sleep well after this one, you’re a loser.”
28. Toronto Raptors (2-10, LW 28). Two positive things to say about the team: last in the Eastern Conference and with the second-worst defense in the league. First, their purple NBA Cup court may be my favorite of all of them. Second, R.J. Barrett’s double take at Nikolaj Coster-Waldau — who played Jaime Lannister in Game Of Thrones — was the best highlight of the past week.

29. Utah Jazz (2-8, LW 30). John Collins has come off the bench in 9-of-10 games for Utah, but is averaging 17.1 points a game and he’s been efficient doing it — 37.5% on 3-pointers and a 61.4 true shooting percentage. Those are the kind of numbers that could have teams calling around the trade deadline.

30. Washington Wizards (2-7, LW 29). Give the Wizards this: With rookies Alex Sarr, Carlton “Bub” Carrington and Kyshawn George, the Wizards play hard every night. They are a long way from good (and getting Kyle Kuzma back from injury only helps so much), but there is a good energy around this team. That’s something.

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