On Sunday, Dec. 15, the green flag on the NBA trade season really drops. That’s when 85 players who signed new contracts (or extended old ones) become eligible to be traded, which makes far more deals possible and starts NBA trade season in earnest.
With that, trade rumors are moving into a simmer around the NBA — there is usually one trade between Dec. 15 and Jan. 15, it takes the pressure of the Feb. 6 trade deadline to turn the NBA trade market into a full boil. However, the rumors are starting to fly around, here are the latest big names and rumors around the league.
Jimmy Butler available
If you want some Real Housewives-level petty drama, we give you the Jimmy Butler trade saga: ESPN’s Shams Charania reported that the Heat are open to listening to offers for Butler and that the six-time All-Star’s agent Bernie Lee had let it be known Butler wants to play for a contender and plans to exercise his player option for next season ($52.4 million, he’s seeking a new, longer contract). In a classic rant referencing Peter Vecsey and ChatGBT, Lee responded on X that Charania needs to stop using his name in “fictional” stories. Charania stood by his reporting.
That’s all great entertainment but ultimately meaningless.
The reality on the ground is that from the moment after last season when Pat Riley said the Heat weren’t going to extend Butler and wanted to see him on the court more — he played 60 games last season and missed the team’s playoff series against Boston — other front offices around the league thought Butler was available via trade. No doubt the Heat will listen to offers for Butler at the deadline. That said, Miami has won four in a row and looks like a team starting to find a groove — Miami is notoriously an organization that lets things play out and makes its moves in the offseason — so temper expectations.
Making that trade is also far less likely than anyone seems to want to admit. The NBA’s new CBA, with its tax aprons and trade restrictions on teams near them, make this nearly an impossible trade to make at the deadline — at least with any team Butler wants to play for. Friend of this site Keith Smith did a fantastic breakdown of all this at SpoTrac.
Golden State is the most mentioned destination and is in the market for a star, but with Butler making $48.8 million this season and both teams up against tax aprons, the only way to make Butler to the Warriors work is to loop in a third team, and even then the price is likely too steep for Golden State. For example, Smith put together a trade that works under the cap, but the Warriors would have to give up Jonathan Kuminga, Andrew Wiggins, De’Anthony Melton and Gary Payton II just to get Butler. That’s four quality rotation players out the door for Butler, a 35-year-old player with a lengthy injury history — are the Warriors actually better after that trade? No.
Phoenix has been rumored to by Charania as a destination Butler is open to, but that only happens if the Heat want Bradley Beal back in the trade, which is not going to happen.
Houston could easily make the deal, but the Rockets have told anyone and everyone who will listen that they like their young core and will not make a significant trade this deadline. Rockets GM Raphael Stone said on SiriusXM NBA Radio, “We definitely do not intend to change anything, and I would be shocked if something changes this season.”
The Mavericks would have to give up five rotation players to make it work, including PJ Washington and Daniel Gafford, which is not happening. People are apparently required by law to mention the Lakers in any trade, but Los Angeles getting Butler looks worse than Miami or Golden State.
Expect a lot of Butler rumors between now and the trade deadline, but don’t be shocked when he plays out the rest of the season in Miami.
LeBron James controls own destiny
The idea that LeBron James would get frustrated with the Lakers and ask for a trade is a favorite of anyone chasing engagement and clicks.
The reality is far more straightforward: LeBron James has a no-trade clause and completely controls the process. To this point, he has made ZERO indications he wants to leave the Lakers — in fact, reports say he wants the Lakers to make a trade to put more talent around him in L.A. He could have moved on at the last trade deadline (when the Warriors pitched a trade, the Lakers asked LeBron and he said no), and he could have this summer as a free agent but instead he re-signed with the Lakers and got that no-trade clause.
LeBron loves playing in the same organization with and sitting next to his son Bronny during games — he is not leaving that. While he could ask for Bronny to be part of a trade to the Warriors so he could try to recapture the magic of Paris with Stephen Curry, the reality is this is an almost impossible trade to pull off because luxury tax apron restrictions that tie the hands of both the Lakers and Warriors, neither can take on more money in a trade than they are sending out (very similar to Butler to the Warriors, Butler and LeBron have very similar salaries this season). Matching a trade nearly dollar for dollar becomes that much more difficult when LeBron demands Bronny be part of the deal.
And all of that is moot unless LeBron demands a trade, and to this point he has not.
Warriors still seeking another star
What is true out of the LeBron and Butler speculation is this: The Warriors want another star to put next to Stephen Curry. That just may not be possible at the trade deadline.
For now, Jonathan Kuminga is getting his chance — he is in a contract year and is getting the opportunity to prove he should be the No. 2 on this team next to Curry, the player who can lead the Warriors into whatever is next. Steve Kerr has moved Kuminga into the starting lineup, and how that plays out has long-term implications for how the Warriors build out the future. At the deadline, this is more likely to look like last summer, when the Warriors chased Paul George and Lauri Markkanen but missed out.
Brandon Ingram trade more likely
The Pelicans’ Brandon Ingram is the biggest name with a legitimate chance to be moved at the trade deadline.
The challenge isn’t this season, when Ingram is averaging 22.2 points, 5.6 rebounds and 5.2 assists a game — he could help teams on the court, he’s an elite isolation scorer. The challenge is future years. Ingram is making $36 million this season and wants an extension closer to his max of around $50 million a season. The Pelicans reportedly — and front office sources from other teams NBC Sports has spoken with — would want Ingram to take a pay cut from his current salary. Obviously, Ingram and his new agent don’t see it that way. His next contract will be one of the most interesting subplots of this offseason.
At 5-21 and with no realistic path to the postseason, the Pelicans are looking to the future. Other front offices are calling not just about Ingram but also testing the water on CJ McCollum and Herb Jones trades, ESPN’s Charania reports. No doubt Trey Murphy III is also brought up by other front offices. (Don’t bet on an injured Zion Williamson, with three years and $128 million still on his contract, to draw serious interest during the season.)
Player to watch: Jonas Valanciunas
When speaking to front office personnel, one name most expect to be on the move is Wizards big man Jonas Valanciunas.
He is a rock-solid five who can stretch the floor (career 34.6% from 3), is averaging 12.6 points and 8.1 rebounds a game for the Wizards and knows how to use his size to defend the paint. He is on a very reasonable contract making $9.9 million this season and $20 million total over the two seasons after this one.
A number of teams — including the Lakers — are looking for a center and Washington will get one of the first calls.
Denver wanting to make trade?
Are the Nuggets title contenders? Despite having the best player walking the face of the earth in Nikola Jokic, Denver sits at 12-10 in the West and would be a play-in team if the postseason started today. Everyone around Jokic has been less than impressive this season.
That has the front office “eager” to “shake things up,” reports Marc Stein in the Stein Line Newsletter. Denver reportedly is dangling reserve forward Zeke Nnaji, who has played a very limited role for the Nuggets this season but has some fans in front offices around the league. We’ll see if that amounts to anything, but it’s worth watching.