Can you feel it? Can you smell it? The NFL season is just a day away and there’s a whole lot to be excited about as we prepare for kickoff. For this Four Verts column, we’re going to focus on four storylines to key in on for the season.
Dallas might be OK, at least for this season
Once again, the Cowboys have been the story of the offseason. They were dragging their feet on an extension for superstar wide receiver CeeDee Lamb, but eventually rewarded him with the market rate contract extension that he was looking for. With the contracts for Dak Prescott and Micah Parsons apparently coming after the season, the Cowboys’ roster is set for 2024. Now that the dust has settled and the financial hysterics can be calmed for the regular season, the Cowboys can set their focus on getting back to the playoffs (and actually winning a game this time). Let’s be real: this is still a damn good roster that’s capable of at least winning the NFC East.
Prescott, Lamb and Parsons are an elite trio for the Cowboys to build around. Those three alone would make them a tough out in just about every game. Two of the truly elite players at their position in Lamb and Parsons, while Prescott just finished a season that had him second in MVP votes. Outside of them, this team has just enough depth to win a whole lot of games, especially with the encouraging performance from their rookie offensive linemen during the preseason.
If left tackle Tyler Guyton and center Cooper Beebe can come out the gate and just be average, this team should have one of the best offenses in the league again. Third-year pro Tyler Smith and future Hall of Famer Zack Martin are already entrenched as two of the best guards in the league. Anything they can get from their rookie offensive linemen is just gravy. They’ll need this group to be strong with a shaky running back room behind them, but quarterback, offensive line and CeeDee Lamb will give the Cowboys a formidable offense on their own.
The defense is an interesting dilemma. Defensive coordinator Mike Zimmer is in town to replace Dan Quinn after he was hired to run the Commanders, which might be an upgrade. Zimmer has been known as one of the best defensive coaches in the NFL this century, but he’s been out of the league for a couple years following his firing from the Vikings. If he still has the juice as a defensive play-caller, Dallas’ defense could actually be a bit better than a year ago. Getting Trevon Diggs back would be a great boost to a defense that already had a strong cornerback in Daron Bland break out last season.
At least for 2024, everything should be fine in Dallas. Where it gets shaky is beyond that. Lamb is locked in for the foreseeable future, but Prescott is slated to become an unrestricted free agent with a “no tag” clause meaning there’s nothing that the Cowboys can do to prevent him from hitting free agency. That’s about to be a bag and half, but that’s a problem for a later date. For now, the Cowboys’ plan of being a competitive team in 2024 looks like a reasonable feat.
What does Year 2 look like for Bryce Young?
OK, let’s try this one more time. Bryce Young had just an abysmal rookie season after the Panthers traded the farm for him, leading them to a 2-15 record alongside one of the most depleted supporting casts in the game. It was a terrible situation for Young’s rookie year, but the results are the results. Frank Reich didn’t even make it through his first season as head coach of the Panthers, that’s how bad it was. Now, Dave Canales is running the show as the third Panthers head coach in the past three years and he faces a tough task ahead of him.
As everyone knows, the Panthers shipped the first overall pick to the Bears, leaving them without an incredibly valuable asset to help jumpstart their rebuild. Still, the offense was able to get an infusion of talent this offseason with the signings of offensive guards Robert Hunt and Damien Lewis, trading for wide receiver Diontae Johnson, drafting wide receiver Xavier Leggette and spending a draft pick on running back Jonathon Brooks. The rookies might not pay off immediately, but the veteran additions should at least help stabilize this offense and help it not be the worst in the league.
Now, saying this offense will be good, or even average, might be a stretch. However, they might have just enough talent now where the new staff can properly evaluate Young’s chances of growing into a franchise quarterback. The flashes of sustainable quarterback play were few and far between, but it’s easy to credit that to his situation. This year, he at least has the chance to play in something that resembles an NFL offense.
The Panthers still have a ways to go before they’re feared, but that wasn’t really a reasonable expectation for anyone to have of them this year. They took a swing for Young with disastrous results Year 1, but in Year 2 they should at least have a clearer picture on if they need to move on to a new quarterback in next year’s NFL Draft.
Rams defense post-Aaron Donald might be rough
This one is pretty straightforward. The Rams lost the greatest defensive tackle in the game who was holding together a defense that was bereft of talent over the past few years. They’ve had some nice finds like defensive tackle Kobie Turner and edge rusher Byron Young, but we haven’t really seen what this looks like without AD99 in the middle just causing havoc and nightmares to opposing offensive lines.
This is a full-on youth movement for the Rams’ defense. Turner and Young are in their second years and they’ll be joined by Florida State rookies Braden Fiske and Jared Verse along the front lines. In fact, their entire front seven, sans veteran linebacker Troy Reeder, is very young. Growing pains are expected — especially with defensive coordinator Raheem Morris taking the head coaching job with the Atlanta Falcons. Chris Shula, grandson of the legendary Don Shula, has been promoted from linebackers coach to defensive coordinator, but he still deserves some grace as a first-time defensive coordinator.
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This is the formula for a defense that’s likely going to struggle mightily this year as they adjust to not having a black hole in the middle anymore. Not to say that everyone on this defense is a bum, but it’s hard to lose a presence like that and just keep it moving like nothing is gone. There will be adjustment period and they might struggle through it.
The good thing is that the Rams should still have an elite or near-elite offense to help buoy them and get them across the finish line while this young defense takes ownership of that side of the ball. Getting veteran cornerback Tre’Davious White on the roster will help from a communication standpoint, but the performance of this defense is going to be driven by their young players. If they can get things together in a hurry, they might be able to challenge the 49ers for the NFC West crown. If not, this will just be another fun team that doesn’t really pose a threat in January.
Can anyone snatch the AFC North from the Ravens?
The Ravens are coming off a heartbreaking AFC championship game loss at home, but the expectations for this season haven’t changed whatsoever. This team is still good enough to win the Super Bowl, granted they can make it there. The defense is still intact from last season, Lamar Jackson and Derrick Henry are in town and they might have more S-tier players than any other team. This should still be considered one of the best rosters in the NFL, but the AFC North is one of the best divisions in the league and will make their return to the top of the division difficult.
Cincinnati appears to have the best hopes for usurping the Ravens. Joe Burrow will be back under center this year after missing much of last year due to an injury. Ja’Marr Chase still has an unresolved contract, but it’s unlikely that he would miss so much time that he would actually be off the team deep into the regular season. Burrow, Chase and Tee Higgins still create one of the best offensive trios in the game. The offensive line is going through a transition, but the potential is high if first-round pick Amarius Mims can stay healthy and on the field. The defense is a concern, but the projected offensive performance should be enough for the Bengals to stay competitive within the division.
Pittsburgh is probably just not good enough to actually make a play for the AFC North crown, even though they did beat the Ravens last season. Mike Tomlin teams will always be tough and win games that they shouldn’t win, but where is the offensive firepower that’s going to consistently threaten teams over the course of a season? George Pickens still has a ways to go before he can be a true No. 1 wide receiver and there isn’t much else outside of him. Perhaps this team can be a formidable offensive unit if their rookie offensive linemen take off, but that’s asking a lot from guys who are in their first year in the league. This team has nice talent at the top with players like T.J. Watt and Minkah Fitzpatrick, but the rest of the roster has very little depth to it.
Cleveland is the wild card here. Their defense is just as good as Baltimore’s, with some metrics preferring the performance of the Browns’ defense last year over the Ravens. Their defense will be a stalwart unit again almost certainly, but the offense is what people care about. Deshaun Watson has been flatly one of the worst quarterbacks in football since the Browns traded three first-round picks for him and handed him a fully guaranteed $230 million contract. Unless that changes, the Browns will absolutely fall short of their goals this year. It’s been four years since Watson even remotely resembled a franchise quarterback, so this just may be what it is with him. The defense will still make them an incredibly tough out, but they might not score enough.
Baltimore realistically has to fend off Cincinnati and Cleveland for their hopes of repeating as the AFC North champions, but they still have the best chance of anyone in the division to win. Tracking Watson’s lifelines, Burrow’s health and Chase’s contract will be key for the Ravens and anyone who thinks they can win the division.