Friday, November 22, 2024

NFL trade deadline winners and losers: While Chiefs and Lions bolster Super Bowl hopes, Cowboys sacrifice only their future

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NFL teams cast their final roster votes Tuesday as the league’s trade deadline arrived halfway through the 2024 regular season.

Eight players were swapped Tuesday before the 4 p.m. ET deadline, bringing the final count to 18 moves during the league’s trading period. Receivers accounted for the most frequently traded position (six) and highest-profile trades (looking at you, Davante Adams), while edge rusher ranked second, attracting four late movers.

No team surrendered its first- or second-round draft picks at the deadline this year, and the three trades involving third-round picks had caveats that complicated their value.

So who won and who lost? Will these trades shift odds for Super Bowl favorites and hot-seat coaches?

Let’s break it down:

You may have heard that no NFL team has won the Super Bowl three consecutive seasons. You also may have heard that the Kansas City Chiefs, winners of the past two, improved to 8-0 on Monday night. Head coach Andy Reid and defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo continue to get the most out of a talented roster. And neither sat still during the trading period.

The Chiefs traded the Tennessee Titans a 2025 conditional fifth-round draft pick for wide receiver DeAndre Hopkins and the New England Patriots a 2026 sixth-rounder for edge rusher Joshua Uche. Hopkins already starred in a Monday overtime win over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, catching 8 of 9 targets for 86 yards and two touchdowns. Don’t count out how his threat boosts tight end Travis Kelce, who hit 100 receiving yards in a regular-season game for the first time in more than a year. How many more aging weapons can the Chiefs revive?

Rodgers got his way twice in the trading period. The New York Jets sent a 2025 conditional third-round pick to the Las Vegas Raiders to acquire Davante Adams. And the Jets shipped receiver Mike Williams to the Pittsburgh Steelers for a 2025 fifth-round pick. From a pure talent standpoint, the Jets upgrade from a role player three years removed from his last strong season to a perennial Pro Bowler who’s led the league in touchdown receptions two of the last four years. And from a petty standpoint, Rodgers publicly, and not subtly, criticized Williams for a route miscue en route to the receiver’s departure … all while advocating for and receiving his longtime close friend and eight-year Green Bay Packers teammate in Adams.

Politics aside, Adams has improved in each of his three Jets games thus far, building to a 91-yard, one-touchdown performance in the Jets’ 21-13 win Thursday night over the Houston Texans. The win saved the Jets’ season for now. And Adams, on a key fourth-down conversion in the third quarter and the game-icing touchdown in the fourth, complemented receiver Garrett Wilson beautifully. How long can the Jets keep the momentum alive?

The NFL world is weirdly into discussing the New Orleans Saints’ salary cap. Yes, the Saints play salary cap gymnastics as much as if not more than any league team, but their accounting nonetheless occupies a surprising amount of mental space in NFL discourse. That said, the best way to offset dead money and hefty contracts is to draft well and start players on their cost-controlled rookie contracts. The Saints gained a haul Tuesday when they traded four-time Pro Bowl cornerback Marshon Lattimore and a 2025 fifth-round pick for third-, fourth- and sixth-round picks in 2024.

Is draft capital any guarantee of performance? Absolutely not. But trading a talented player who commanded the best cost of this trade cycle makes sense for a team that’s lost seven straight and fired head coach Dennis Allen this week. In a surprisingly competitive NFC South, that capital and a better bill of health next year could help.

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Regardless of how the presidential election turns out, the D.C., Maryland and Virginia metropolitan area has reason to celebrate. For the first time since 1996, four years before their quarterback, Jayden Daniels, was born, the Washington Commanders have won seven of their first nine games. A long-mired franchise looks well-positioned for a playoff berth this year and beyond. Their Tuesday trade for Lattimore, the Saints’ 2017 first-round pick, speaks to the team’s belief in what it can accomplish as well as to an honest assessment of strengths and weaknesses. With a top-three offense that’s way ahead of schedule, head coach Dan Quinn and defensive coordinator Joe Whitt add a piece to help shore up a defense allowing too many big plays.

Lattimore is not merely an aging veteran. When he’s been the nearest defender this season, quarterbacks have completed passes at a rate of 12.3% below expectation, per Next Gen Stats (52.6% completion rate overall). Only the Chicago Bears’ Jaylon Johnson and San Francisco 49ers’ Renardo Green have graded better.

From Brian Branch to Kerby Joseph and beyond, the Lions field a homegrown, talented young corps of secondary players. But any NFL defensive coordinator will tell you how the pass rush and coverage units work in tandem. After the Lions lost star edge rusher Aidan Hutchinson to surgery-requiring tibia and fibula fractures, that defense missed a core anchor in its pressure. Detroit would and should intimidate defensively even without the acquisition of Za’Darius Smith, who arrived Tuesday from the Cleveland Browns along with a 2026 seventh-round pick in exchange for a 2025 fifth and a 2026 sixth.

But the Lions are in a clear Super Bowl window they should not leave to chance, and Smith drastically upgrades their edge. His 26 active pressures this season top the next-closest Lions edge rusher by 17 (though respect for your nine, Joshua Paschal). Smith joins a talented defensive line that has been generating an unusually high pressure rate from the interior, so he should complement rather than interrupt the defensive front. Could this move help seal the Lions’ favorite status in the NFC?

Amari Cooper, again

Imagine being traded in 2018 from the Raiders to the Dallas Cowboys. Now imagine being traded this year from the Cleveland Browns and quarterback Deshaun Watson (at the time) to the Buffalo Bills and quarterback Josh Allen. The 30-year-old Cooper was ready to leave Cleveland and showed it. He joins an AFC team far more ready to contend, with a quarterback far more talented and productive.

While Cooper missed the Bills’ win over the Dolphins this past week with a wrist injury, he showed in his first game with Buffalo that he can make an immediate impact. Cooper caught four of five targets for 66 yards and a touchdown in a 34-10 win over the Tennessee Titans. If he can return healthy, expect him to continue to lead a young position group that lost Stefon Diggs in the offseason.

Maybe 2023 second-rounder Jonathan Mingo follows other Carolina Panthers castoffs to find success in Dallas. Maybe teaming up with Dak Prescott beside CeeDee Lamb gives Mingo the needed boost of confidence to get his career back on track. Even so, it will be challenging to justify the Cowboys’ 2025 fourth-round pick compensation in exchange for Mingo and a 2025 seventh-round pick. Because the Cowboys are not on track to renew head coach Mike McCarthy, and thus they should not be acquiring personnel for a coach and scheme they do not yet understand.

Dallas’ baffling trade reflects a team that liked Mingo’s measurables in the draft and appreciates how his speed can stretch the field while his physicality translates well to blocking for teammates. But a player who’s struggled with drops and lost playing time this season has an uphill climb. And he’ll likely be playing for his fifth head coach by the time he begins his third pro season. Will that coach appreciate the fourth-round pick the Cowboys front office gave up?

You won’t find doubt here that the NFC North is easily the most talented division in the league this season. Only the NFC North and AFC West have three teams above .500 through nine weeks, and the NFC North has three teams above a 0.666 win clip. So while the Lions are division favorites and current leaders, the Minnesota Vikings and Green Bay Packers should also be strongly in the mix for wild-card spots.

The problem: Any hopes of catching the Lions, and gaining wins they’ll need to secure wild-card spots, became a bit tougher as Za’Darius Smith returned to a division he knows well. After Smith earned two Pro Bowl berths in three seasons with the Packers and another in his lone season playing for Minnesota, expect him to arrive not only with productivity but also with a chip on his shoulder. Sam Darnold, Jordan Love and Caleb Williams best beware.

Perhaps the Houston Texans believe their players with short-term injuries will help settle their offense, or perhaps they believe their offensive line will settle in more for the second half of the season than it did in the first. Perhaps the Texans believe that their shoddy protection results more from scheme than personnel issues, or that the available offensive linemen were not upgrades from their current roster.

Regardless, the trade deadline brought no help for quarterback C.J. Stroud after he’s faced a torrent of pressure in his second season. The Texans rank bottom five in both pass-block win rate and rush-block win rate, and their only hope now must come from within.

With all due respect to Mike Williams, who is probably better than Rodgers deemed him to be with the Jets, the Pittsburgh Steelers have broadcast their receiver wishes for months and fallen far short of expectation. Pittsburgh offered the San Francisco 49ers a deal for Brandon Aiyuk that the team was on board with but not the player, per multiple reports, and thus failed to close that deal in training camp. This week, the Steelers inquired about New York Giants receiver Darius Slayton, per ESPN’s Jeremy Fowler.

Williams is older and less productive than both players. He may help an offense, but he will not transform it as the other two could. The Steelers already have George Pickens as their top wideout and a resurging run game. With their staunch defense, that should carry them to the playoffs. But quarterback Russell Wilson and Co. won’t have the 2024 talent infusion that had previously seemed possible.

The Jacksonville Jaguars have a 20-23 record in head coach Doug Pederson’s three-year tenure. That’s far below the franchise’s expectation for a Super Bowl-winning head coach teaming with an expected generational talent in quarterback Trevor Lawrence. This season’s 2-7 start is by far the worst of Pederson’s tenure. And while the Jaguars didn’t hold any crazy fire sale, trading away starting left tackle Cam Robinson shows how much stock team ownership is putting in Pederson’s ability to fix Lawrence.

In a 28-23 loss to the Eagles this past weekend, Lawrence didn’t just post his worst passer rating of the year, his 40.9 mark ranked more than 24 points below his previous worst. At this point, Pederson’s dismissal seems not a question of if but when this year. Selling the recently paid franchise quarterback’s blindside protection was one of the final nails in the coffin.

If an NFL player wants to find a second wind, or a ninth life, they should join the Titans. And then they should leave. First, wide receiver A.J. Brown balled out with the Philadelphia Eagles, and then running back Derrick Henry began his monster 2024 with the Baltimore Ravens. Monday night, the latest ex-Titans player had himself a night when Hopkins scored two touchdowns in just his second game with the Chiefs.

In case anyone wondered how the Titans let walk a player with that kind of hand strength and body control even as he speed wanes, Hopkins ensured his touchdown celebration would remind them from where he came. Behold, the “Remember the Titans” celly.

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