The Indianapolis Colts might have the weirdest split between actual results and results against the spread this season.
We don’t think too much of the Colts. They’re 4-5 this season. But against the spread they’ve been one of the NFL’s best teams, at an impressive 7-2. Only two teams, the Detroit Lions and Washington Commanders, have a better record against the spread this season according to Action Network. They are the only team in the NFL with a losing record that is also at least two games over .500 against the spread. It’s a weird Colts season, from a betting angle. They might not be very good, but bettors should like them.
Here’s a look at Week 10 in the NFL from a betting perspective, with all odds from BetMGM:
Thursday night: Bengals season on the line?
Cincinnati Bengals quarterback Joe Burrow stalked around the sideline last Sunday and was ornery after throwing five touchdowns in a win, and there had to be a reason. He understands that Thursday night at the Baltimore Ravens might be a crossroads game for the Bengals’ season. The 4-5 Bengals are going to need to pull an upset or two to make the playoffs, and they’re a 6-point underdog at Baltimore.
There are reasons to believe the Bengals can at least keep it close. Burrow is playing well, and the Ravens’ weakness is their pass defense. Cincinnati should have won the first meeting in perhaps the best game of the first half of this NFL season back in Week 5, but a botched hold on a field goal attempt in overtime led to a 41-38 Ravens win. Baltimore is tough to slow down, but the Bengals can score with them.
Early Sunday game: Not a great game for Germany
The NFL pushes its international games, but it needs to give other countries better matchups. Does anyone think they’re luring in new fans with New York Giants vs. Carolina Panthers in German on Sunday morning? Woof. The Giants are 6.5-point favorites for the early game, and that seems a bit high considering neither team is good. If Daniel Jones can’t have a big game against this Panthers defense, maybe it really is time for the Giants to make a QB change. Football fanatics will watch any two teams, but this game will test that.
Scheduling spot: 49ers get a big advantage
The NFL needs to take a little better care in how it schedules some games. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers can’t be pleased. They played on the road Monday night, then come home to face a San Francisco 49ers team that had a bye last week. That’s simply not good enough by NFL schedule makers. The 49ers, who might have Christian McCaffrey back, are 6-point favorites. That relatively large line indicates oddsmakers have taken into account the rest disparity for the Bucs in this game. It’s a tough spot for them to be in.
Player prop of the week: Russell Wilson passing yards
You wouldn’t have figured that a Wilson over was going to look good a month ago, but things change fast. Wilson has 264 and 278 yards in his first two Steelers starts and looks pretty good. The Commanders’ defense is improving but has still been average at best this season. Wilson’s passing yardage total is just 216.5. Do we believe in his career revival carrying over to another game?
Interesting underdog: Pittsburgh Steelers
Every NFL team should take every game with equal seriousness, but that’s not realistic. And the Washington Commanders have a heck of a lookahead spot on Sunday.
They face the Pittsburgh Steelers but their minds might be on a Week 11 game. On Thursday night in Week 11, the Commanders play at the Philadelphia Eagles in a massive NFC East game. Maybe that’s good news for the Pittsburgh Steelers, who play the Commanders on Sunday and are a 3-point underdog. The Commanders are a good team, but so are the Steelers. Don’t be surprised if the Commanders look a little flat.
Sunday night: Letdown for Lions?
The Detroit Lions are the best team in the NFL right now. That doesn’t mean they’re unbeatable. This is a tricky matchup for the Lions, traveling for a second straight road game to face the Houston Texans. The Lions are a 3.5-point favorite and that seems a little high. The Lions are coming off a massive win against the Green Bay Packers, while the Texans got some extra rest after a tough loss to the New York Jets. Keep an eye on Nico Collins’ availability, as the Texans hope to soon get back their No. 1 receiver. Let’s not forget that the Texans are a pretty good team too.
Monday night: Rams are coming on strong
The Los Angeles Rams are surging, and everyone will focus on the offense getting healthy. That helps, obviously. But it’s the defense that has taken a huge step forward in recent weeks. Los Angeles looks like the type of team that could be a big story in the second half of the season. First, they have to beat the Miami Dolphins on Monday night. They’re a small 1-point favorite. Miami is a better team with Tua Tagovailoa back, and even though they’ve lost both games since his return, both have been very close and heartbreaking losses. This should be a fun game, and a good test if the Rams’ hot streak can continue.