The NFL season is long and there are dog days to it. It’s hard as one of the elite teams to play at a top level for four straight months.
Maybe that’s a reason underdogs did well in Week 10. It was an odd week: Through Sunday’s early window of games, underdogs were 7-2 against the spread on the week. Then, in the late window, favorites went 3-0. But it flipped back around and underdogs covered on Sunday night and Monday night. Overall it was a 9-5 week for underdogs. We’ll see if that trend continues in Week 11.
Here’s a look at Week 11 of the NFL season from a betting perspective, with all odds from BetMGM:
Thursday night: Commanders vs. Eagles is huge in NFC East
When this matchup was made for Thursday night in Week 11, it seemed the best-case scenario was we’d get to see a Rookie of the Year candidate against a really good NFC East favorite and maybe Jayden Daniels would help the Washington Commanders keep it close. Instead, it’s one of the top matchups of a stacked Week 11.
The Commanders have already hit the over on their season win total of 6.5, starting 7-3. Daniels isn’t just the overwhelming Offensive Rookie of the Year favorite, he’s one of the best quarterbacks in the NFL. They lost last week but are still contenders to win the division. The Philadelphia Eagles are quietly coming on, winning all five games since their bye, and Thursday night’s line reflects that the betting market still doesn’t think the Commanders are quite on the Eagles’ level. The Eagles are 3.5-point favorites and the line is creeping toward Eagles -4. The Eagles are probably the better team and the action on Philadelphia is justified, though Washington has already proven just about everyone wrong this season.
Rivalry renewed: Ravens at Steelers
Baltimore Ravens vs. Pittsburgh Steelers has produced some great games through the years. Nobody figured that this first meeting would be for first place of the AFC North.
The Ravens being 7-3 is no surprise, but the Steelers’ 7-2 record is unexpected. They have played well all season, and the offense got better when Russell Wilson took over as the team’s starting quarterback. But there’s skepticism about them. That’s a reason the Steelers are 3-point underdogs at home against the Ravens and MVP favorite Lamar Jackson. Even more surprising, the Ravens are a -300 favorite to win the division. That’s surprising given that it’s mid-November and the Steelers lead by a half-game. Those odds will change if the Steelers win this one at home.
Interesting underdog: Chicago Bears
Last week, we saw the New Orleans Saints get that first-week bounce with a new coach, winning with interim coach Darren Rizzi. Does the same thing apply to new offensive coordinators?
It seems the Bears were ready for offensive coordinator Shane Waldron to go. His schemes were bad for Caleb Williams and the Bears’ offense was awful. Thomas Brown steps in, and it can’t be much worse. The Green Bay Packers are a 5.5-point road favorite, and that seems high. We’ll see if the Bears have a little more juice with a new offensive play-caller.
Game of the year?: Bills take on the Chiefs
For all the talk of the Kansas City Chiefs’ undefeated record, if the Buffalo Bills beat them at home on Sunday they’ll be one game behind them with the head-to-head tiebreaker in hand. This is a huge game in shaping the top of the AFC playoff picture.
The Bills are 2.5-point favorites. That shows respect for the Bills to be favored over a 9-0 defending champion. It also shows some respect to the Chiefs that the line is less than a full field goal. The Bills struggled in losses to the Ravens and Texans, but both of those games came on the road. This is a prove-it game for Buffalo, and it can also go a long way in locking up the No. 1 seed in the AFC for Kansas City. BetMGM’s odds for the AFC’s No. 1 seed are Chiefs at -400 and Bills at +450, and if you like the Bills to win Sunday then taking them as the No. 1 seed might be smart, too.
Player prop of the week: Anthony Richardson passing
Anthony Richardson was benched a couple weeks ago because he wasn’t playing well enough for the Indianapolis Colts. Then he got the job back because Joe Flacco wasn’t any good either.
Richardson goes on the road this week against a disappointing but talented New York Jets defense, and his passing yardage prop is 177.5. Richardson has had more than 175 passing yards in four of his six games this season. Has he changed as a quarterback after being benched for two weeks? Probably not. There’s always a danger in betting the under on Richardson because he can complete a 70-yard pass at any time, but that’s probably what he needs to hit the over.
Sunday night: Joe Burrow vs. Justin Herbert
Burrow and Herbert are two of the quarterback stars from a loaded 2020 NFL Draft class, and they face off Sunday night. The Cincinnati Bengals, at 4-6, need to start winning now. But it won’t come easy against a 6-3 Los Angeles Chargers team.
It’s a great slate for Week 11 and the Sunday night game should be entertaining as well. The Chargers are a small 1.5-point home favorite. The main question is, can the Bengals’ defense slow the Chargers down?
Monday night: Unfortunately, the Cowboys
Enjoy Thursday and Sunday, because Monday night is a terrible dessert to a great meal. The Houston Texans will be taking on an inept Dallas Cowboys team. The Cowboys were bad with Dak Prescott and looked way worse without him last week. With Prescott injured, Dallas turned to Cooper Rush, who had 45 yards on 23 attempts last week. Gross.
The Texans aren’t exactly great lately either. They just blew a lead and lost at home to a Detroit Lions team that threw five interceptions. Houston is a 7.5-point favorite, which makes sense, but the main takeaway is that this game is a good argument for including Monday night games in the flex schedules.