The October jobs report is expected to show job gains slowed significantly during the month as recent hurricanes and a strike by Boeing workers weigh on the labor market.
The monthly report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, slated for release at 8:30 a.m. ET on Friday, is expected to show nonfarm payrolls rose by 105,000 in October while the unemployment rate held flat at 4.1%, according to consensus estimates compiled by Bloomberg. This would mark the lowest monthly number of job additions since December 2020.
In September, the US economy shocked Wall Street by adding 254,000 jobs, well above consensus estimates. The unemployment rate declined to 4.1%.
Here are the key numbers Wall Street will be looking at on Friday morning compared to the previous month, according to data from Bloomberg:
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Nonfarm payrolls: +105,000 vs. +254,000 previously
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Unemployment rate: 4.1% vs. 4.1% previously
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Average hourly earnings, month over month: +0.3% vs. +0.4% previously
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Average hourly earnings, year over year: +4.0% vs. +4.0% previously
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Average weekly hours worked: 34.2 vs. 34.2 previously
Hurricane Milton made landfall in Florida on Oct. 9 during the survey week for the October jobs report, which “probably weighed on payrolls across the board, especially in leisure & hospitality,” Bank of America US economist Shruti Mishra wrote in a note to clients.
Overall, Shruti’s team believes the hurricanes and a strike at Boeing will lower payrolls by at least 50,000. Given that, Shruti argued a reading of around 100,000 job additions would still be a “solid print.”
Considering the distortions expected in Friday’s report, which also includes impact from Hurricane Helene, RBC economist Michael Reid noted that the unemployment rate will provide the “cleanest read” on the labor market from the October jobs report.
“If we do see any weakness in the [unemployment rate], it will likely be due to something other than the hurricanes and striking workers,” Reid wrote in a note to clients.
The report will be the last major economic release before the Federal Reserve’s next policy decision on Nov. 7. As of Thursday, markets are pricing in a roughly 95% chance that the Federal Reserve cuts interest rates by 25 basis points next week, per the CME FedWatch Tool.
Read more: What the Fed rate cut means for bank accounts, CDs, loans, and credit cards
Some economists don’t believe Friday’s report will do much to change Fed officials’ thinking on the health of the labor market given the expected distortions.