Although Ontario’s latest squall event is now in the books, winter is throwing another snowball at residents this week, a very cold one, actually.
The focus of the coldest weather in the country has quickly shifted into Central Canada from the eastern Prairies. In fact, the second week of January will be the coldest seven-day stretch of the season across the Great Lakes region, with the much colder-than-normal weather even extending all the way to Florida.
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For Toronto’s Pearson International Airport, we are looking at the possibility of its longest stretch of below-freezing temperatures in at least three years, perhaps more.
Past cold streaks at Pearson and potential outcomes for new chilly stretch
With a piece of the polar vortex anchored over Hudson Bay, it will facilitate frequent shots of Arctic air and will produce an abundance of lake-effect snow for parts of the Great Lakes region (more to come).
Right now, 10 days below freezing at the airport would be the longest stretch since Jan. 20-31, 2022 (12 days). A few days before that, Toronto was hit with a significant snowstorm that cost the city $17 million for snow removal.
Our current forecast indicates this 12-day period will likely be usurped this year.
If it keeps going further, reaching up to 16 days, it will be the longest since Feb. 6-21, 2021 (16 days).
And if it keeps going beyond that, an unlikely scenario, it will be the airport’s longest below-freezing stretch since Jan. 30 to March 2, 2015 (32 days).
The airport’s longest duration of below-freezing values on record is a whopping 46 days––from Dec. 26, 1976 to Feb. 9, 1977.
Don’t fret, Ontarians, we won’t be enduring this cold snap for that long.
Great Lakes ice coverage is extremely low
At the moment, the average ice cover on the Great Lakes is 1.8 per cent, quite low compared to the median of 12 per cent for early January.
To get an idea of what to expect for any surge in ice cover after an extended period of below-freezing temperatures, we look to the increases that occurred after the time frames we mentioned earlier.
Ice coverage increases:
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Feb. 6-21, 2021: 240 per cent
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Dec. 26, 1976 to Feb. 9, 1977: 171 per cent
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Jan. 20-31, 2022: 146 per cent
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Jan. 30 to March 2, 2015: 125 per cent
We’ll see how much that jumps up once the current cold snap is over.
Thumbnail courtesy of Julio Macias/Getty Images/1208195089-170667a.
With files from Dr. Doug Gillham, a meteorologist at The Weather Network.