Patriots-49ers preview: Pats should have room to run in Week 4 originally appeared on NBC Sports Boston
FOXBORO — The Patriots have an opportunity at a do-over on Sunday.
No, they won’t be able to change the outcome of their Thursday night dud last week. But there are similarities between their opponent that night, the Jets, and the one that awaits them in San Francisco. And those similarities will allow Jerod Mayo, his assistants and their players to show that the things they should have done in New Jersey are things they can do at Levi’s Stadium this weekend and moving forward.
The easiest correction? Play with more energy and emotion than they showed in their sleepy 24-3 divisional defeat. This game will be a test of the culture Mayo has worked to implement since he was hired. How bought in are his players to his message? How will they respond to what was an embarrassing performance 10 days earlier?
Next on the list: Run the football effectively against the Niners, something they should’ve been able to do against the lackluster run defense the Jets exhibited through two weeks of the regular season. The Niners have been even worse in that regard, which means opportunities will be there on the ground for offensive coordinator Alex Van Pelt’s unit.
Finally, on the defensive side of things, the Patriots will have another chance to show that they can, in fact, keep a mobile quarterback inside the pocket. That was a focus of theirs against Aaron Rodgers. Didn’t go so well. Now they’ll be tasked with executing a similar plan against Brock Purdy. This is their chance at righting that particular Week 3 wrong.
Even against a banged-up Niners team, the Patriots look like they will be out-gunned from a talent standpoint. Still, this is a massive week for them to show they can do the things they should be able to do on a weekly basis. Offensively. Defensively. From an effort standpoint.
If they do those things, even if they lose, that could set them up for a season’s worth of games that make the last one they played look like an outlier.
Matchup that will determine the outcome
Patriots defensive line vs. Brock Purdy
The Niners offense hasn’t been the full-strength Niners offense this year, and yet they remain one of the most efficient groups in the league. They’re eighth in points, third in yards, fifth in yards per play, fourth in yards per pass and fifth in EPA per play.
That’s with Christian McCaffrey, George Kittle and Deebo Samuel all in different states of disrepair through three games this season. And with top wideout Brandon Aiyuk still working his way back into form after holding himself out of training camp practices until receiving a new contract.
Purdy has been extremely effective as Kyle Shanahan’s trigger man despite having the second-longest average time to throw in the NFL. The ball isn’t coming out quickly in an offense typically predicated on timing and rhythm… but it hasn’t mattered. In fact, there isn’t an offense in the league that averages more yards per game on lengthy dropback attempts (longer than 2.5 seconds) than the Niners. By comparison, on shorter dropback attempts (shorter than 2.5 seconds), the Niners average fewer yards per game (59.7, 28th) than the anemic Patriots passing game (60.0, 27th).
Then the answer is clear, right? Get Purdy to get rid of it quickly.
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Maybe. But it’s not that simple. Cutting up the field immediately off the snap, if the Patriots can do it, might encourage Purdy to get outside the pocket where he can create yards with his legs or extend plays to allow his receivers time to uncover. Pressure hasn’t really slowed down the Niners offense this year. They’re 24th this season in pass-blocking efficiency, per Pro Football Focus. Purdy has the eighth-highest pressure rate in the NFL, according to NextGen Stats. And he has the eighth-most on-the-move passing attempts when under pressure, per Sports Info Solutions. They’re still lighting it up.
And allowing Purdy to get outside the pocket is playing with fire to a degree. He hasn’t made much of his off-script, outside-the-pocket attempts this year; he’s averaging just 2.6 yards per attempt outside the pocket on seven attempts so far in 2024. But he was third in 2023, his first season as a full-time starter, when it came to yards per pass attempt from outside the pocket (8.4), according to SIS.
The answer? Do what they couldn’t do against Rodgers. Keep him behind center. Maintain rush-lane integrity. Try to get the ball out of his hands quickly, but not at the risk of allowing him to wriggle free from the pocket.
If the Patriots can do that on a regular basis, they might be able to diffuse what has been one of the best passing games in the NFL this season. They’ll have to try if they want to go into San Francisco and earn an upset victory as 10-point underdogs.
Matchup that will surprise you
Patriots running game vs. Niners defense
The San Francisco defense hasn’t been itself through three games. Particularly against the run. Jennifer Lee Chan of NBC Sports Bay Area broke down some of their issues in that area on Next Pats, and the numbers are downright ugly for them.
They’re 21st in yards allowed per carry and 29th in EPA allowed per carry this season. The Niners are 30th in the NFL this season on third downs, which could be due in part to their inability to stop the run on first and second down, leading to manageable third-and-short situations.
San Francisco also happens to be especially deficient when they sell out to stop the run. Seems counterintuitive, but according to NextGen Stats, the Niners are allowing 5.5 yards per carry and a 69 percent success rate (second-highest in the league) when they have eight or more defenders in the box to stop opposing rushers.
That should be music to the ears of Rhamondre Stevenson, who has seen stacked boxes on 27 percent of his carries this year, which is the seventh-highest rate in the league.
If the Patriots can commit to the run in this matchup, keep Purdy and his high-powered offense off the field, they’ll have a chance to keep things close and maybe earn themselves a surprising outcome.
Matchup that will take years off your life
Demontrey Jacobs vs. Nick Bosa
Passing, on the other hand, might not be the best idea for the Patriots offense. The Niners are the fourth-best blitzing team in football when it comes to pressure rate generated. They don’t typically blitz all that much — they have the second-lowest blitz rate in football — but that should change after the Jets (another team that doesn’t typically like to blitz) had all kinds of success blitzing New England’s offensive line in Week 3.
As Patriots Hall of Fame line coach Dante Scarnecchia told Patriots Talk this week, until the offensive line proves they can stop the pressures they saw at MetLife Stadium, they’re going to see them again. And again. And again.
Even when the Niners don’t blitz, they’ll have a chance to live in the Patriots backfield. Jacoby Brissett has seen a higher pressure rate than any quarterback this season (47.6 percent), and he’ll have to avoid Nick Bosa on Sunday.
The Patriots could be starting Demontrey Jacobs at left tackle, meaning Bosa — who plays on both sides of the line — would be partly his responsibility. Jacobs has gotten significant work at practice this week with Vederian Lowe (out) and Caedan Wallace (questionable) dealing with knee injuries, including reps alongside starting (when healthy) left guard Sidy Sow. Jacobs, claimed off waivers from the Broncos back in August, got his first regular-season NFL snaps late against the Jets last week.
The Patriots will need to find a way to help their second-year lineman against Bosa if and when that problem presents itself. That could mean running right at Bosa to force him to expend energy against the run. That could mean utilizing tight ends Hunter Henry and Austin Hooper to double Bosa. That could mean screen and draws in third-down situations to prevent Bosa from being able to tee off on Brissett.
Van Pelt knows he’ll have to have Bosa in mind early and often this week.
“Nightmare,” Van Pelt said of Bosa. “Great player. Generational player, speed, power — all of it. Definitely an issue and definitely a concern. We have to make sure we don’t let him ruin the game for us. He is that type of (player)…”
“You have to be creative and have multiple ways of (handling Bosa). “There are ways to get it done, and it’s going to be a group effort and take a lot of energy to make sure we lock in on pass protection.”