Winter showed up during December across much of Canada, but it lacked commitment and didn’t linger long across any particular region.
Then, during late December, winter fled the country! The temperature anomaly map below highlights the much warmer-than-normal temperatures that took over from coast to coast, with conditions more typical of November.
However, winter has returned—and this time, it is here for a more extended stay!
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Here is the temperature pattern that we expect will dominate for the first three weeks of January.
While we are starting January with frigid conditions across the Prairies, the focus of the coldest weather will quickly shift east from the eastern Prairies to southern Quebec. The second week of January will be the coldest week of the season across the Great Lakes region and much colder-than-normal weather will extend all the way to Florida.
Meanwhile, above-seasonal temperatures are expected to dominate across B.C., the Yukon, and into the western Prairies.
The Maritimes will experience changeable temperatures which should result in near-normal conditions overall. Above-seasonal temperatures are expected to dominate from Newfoundland to Nunavut.
While most of Canada will see near-seasonal or colder-than-seasonal temperatures through the first half of January, this pattern is not conducive to major winter storms for much of the country.
A piece of the polar vortex is expected to be anchored over Hudson Bay. This will facilitate frequent shots of Arctic air and will produce an abundance of lake-effect snow for parts of the Great Lakes region.
However, this jet stream pattern will push the storm track well south of the border with primarily clippers and cold fronts bringing relatively minor amounts of snow.
This pattern will also give the south coast of B.C. a break from their recent stormy pattern as storms off the Pacific will track well north of the region.
Much of Atlantic Canada will also see a pattern that is less stormy than normal, but a few storms will impact Newfoundland.
SEE ALSO: January is Canada’s snowiest month. Here’s what you can expect
As we progress through the second half of January, we expect a gradual shift in the pattern as the focus of the frigid weather will start to shift west and milder temperatures will attempt to surge north into the eastern U.S.
By the end of January, we expect that much of Central and Western Canada will be colder than normal, while temperatures will be near seasonal or above seasonal from southern Ontario to Atlantic Canada.
However, keep in mind that late January is the coldest time of the year for most of Canada, so it is possible to see high-impact winter storms with above-seasonal temperatures.
So, while this pattern could bring the proverbial January thaw to parts of Eastern Canada, this set-up also makes the Great Lakes to Atlantic Canada the battleground between the frigid weather and the milder conditions—and such regions are vulnerable to winter storms.
It is much too early to have confidence in the exact storm track, but the second half of January is a time period that we will be watching very closely. The transition from a cold pattern to a milder pattern could actually bring the highest impact winter weather of the season if the storm track is just south of the international border.