Rafael, the 17th named storm of the Atlantic hurricane season, continued to pick up steam late Tuesday, strengthening into a hurricane ahead of a Cuba landfall. Additional strengthening is forecast, with Rafael likely to hit western Cuba at or near major hurricane status on Wednesday.
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A hurricane warning remains in effect for the Cayman Islands, as well as the Cuban provinces of Pinar del Rio, Artemisa, La Habana, Mayabeque, Matanzas, and the Isle of Youth. A tropical storm warning also covers the Cuban provinces of Villa Clara, Cienfuegos, Sancti Spiritus, and Ciego de Avila.
A tropical storm warning has been issued for the Florida Keys, as Rafael moves into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico later Wednesday, and threatens heavy rain and stormy conditions across parts of south Florida.
Rafael forecast to be near major hurricane strength at landfall in western Cuba
Hurricane Rafael will make landfall Wednesday afternoon in western Cuba, continuing to impact millions, including its capital city of Havana.
The current forecast holds Rafael at Category 2 strength at landfall, but could actually near major hurricane status given the favourable environment. Rafael’s maximum sustained winds were gusting to 150 km/h early Wednesday.
“Rapid strengthening is forecast, and Rafael could be near major hurricane intensity before it makes landfall in Cuba later today,” said the U.S. National Hurricane Center (NHC) in its Wednesday morning update.
Heavy rainfall will impact the Western Caribbean through early Thursday, particularly across Jamaica, the Cayman Islands, and into southern and western portions of Cuba, the NHC says.
Rainfall totals of 100-175 mm are expected, with isolated higher totals up to 250 mm anticipated across areas of higher terrain. These significant rainfall totals could lead to areas of flash flooding and mudslides.
Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 2.5 to 3.5 metres above normal tide levels in areas of onshore winds along the southern coast of Cuba. That includes the Isle of Youth.
The current track has Rafael briefly weakening over Cuba, but is expected to move northwest into the Gulf of Mexico by Thursday afternoon. It may continue its hurricane strength until being interrupted by higher wind shear, which blows apart storm structure and organization.
Florida tornadoes possible within outer bands of Rafael
While exact landfall locations and impacts currently remain uncertain in the southern United States, heavy rain is likely to spread north into Florida and adjacent areas of the Southeast U.S. late week. A dominant Bermuda high will be instrumental, and will help to steer Rafael to the northwest, sparing most of Florida from major hurricane impacts.
There is a slight risk for severe thunderstorms as the outer convective bands of Rafael move across the Keys and extreme southern Florida later Wednesday afternoon.
“Current track suggests severe probabilities will not need to be expanded north across the Peninsula as strongest shear will remain offshore across the Gulf Basin,” said the U.S. Storm Prediction Center in its Wednesday morning update.
Some tornadic threats will exist in the strongest, most organized convection, especially across the Keys. Rainfall totals of 25-75 mm are expected for the Lower and Middle Florida Keys.
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Impacts to the Gulf states are still highly uncertain, with computer models quite divergent in the spaghetti plot. Some loop into Louisiana, while others keep the storm on a path west into Mexico.
A ridge building by the weekend may tip guidance further west, impacting Texas or Mexico into next week.
The hurricane season slowed down in August, which is quite unusual. The peak of hurricane season occurs around Sept. 10. However, tropical activity resumed at the end of the season with about 10 storms named since Sept. 24. This is a record according to specialist Phillip Klotzbach.
The Atlantic hurricane season officially runs through Nov. 30, though it’s still possible for storms to form after that date.
Many of the late-season storms we see develop in November form in the Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico, which can reduce the amount of time coastal residents have to prepare before these storms hit land.