Ramp to Camp: Predicting the Celtics’ 2024-25 win total originally appeared on NBC Sports Boston
The 2023-24 Boston Celtics posted the fourth-highest win total in team history. So what does this group have planned for an encore?
For the fifth installment of our Ramp to Camp 2024 series, we gave our panel an end-of-the-week layup: Give us a win total prediction for the 2024-25 Celtics and where they’ll finish seeding-wise in the Eastern Conference.
(Check out the first four installments of Ramp to Camp here.)
Not surprisingly, our panel is pretty bullish on the Celtics sticking atop the East. But their record predictions did suggest the win total might slide back from last season. Boston piled up 64 wins during the 2023-24 campaign, slotting behind only teams from 1972-73 (68 wins), 1985-86 (67), and 2007-08 (66).
But half of our panel sees the Celtics’ win total scooting back a fair amount this season. Their reasoning is sound: no Kristaps Porzingis to start the season, a beefed-up Eastern Conference, and a battle against complacency when the ultimate goal cannot be achieved until June.
History, too, would suggest a potential dip. The 1973-74 Celtics won just 56 games while the 1986-87 Celtics got to 59.
But to us, the 2008-09 Celtics are an intriguing comp. And that group offers a roadmap to sustaining a lofty win total.
Like, the 2007-08 group, these Celtics won a title in their first season after cobbling together an elite collection of talent. Both teams brought back very similar rosters. (That 2008-09 squad lost James Posey but had the same starting five of Rajon Rondo, Ray Allen, Paul Pierce, Kevin Garnett and Kendrick Perkins.)
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A 19-game winning streak had that 2008-09 team at a staggering 27-2 going into a Christmas Day showdown with the Los Angeles Lakers. Boston was 41-9 after another 12-game winning streak spanned into early February, putting the team on a 67-win pace before the All-Star break.
Disaster struck in late February when Kevin Garnett injured his right knee in Utah. He sat out the next 13 games before trying to return in late March. He ultimately sat out the rest of the season. The Celtics lost a seven-game series to the Magic in the Eastern Conference semifinals.
As much as the 2007-08 Celtics are romanticized for raising Banner 17 immediately after the acquisitions of Garnett and Ray Allen, there’s a case to be made that the 2008-09 squad was even better. If Garnett doesn’t get injured, it’s fair to wonder if the Celtics challenge the franchise win total record and maybe even win another title.
That’s our long-winded way of saying that the 2024-25 Celtics don’t necessarily have to take a big step back with their win total this season. Not having Porzingis out of the gates isn’t ideal but this team knows how to win without him. This team can also tap into the continuity and chemistry of last season with potential to hit the ground running again this year.
Emboldened by that 2008-09 team, we’re slotting the Celtics at 62-20 and another first-place finish in the Eastern Conference. It’s a tiny step back but would still be a top 10 win total in franchise history.
They’ll need to display the same mental toughness that last year’s group did in avoiding losing streaks but the talent is too great to not get back to the 60-win plateau.
Here are the rest of the predictions from our panel: