As the Baltimore Ravens confronted their fifth loss of the season, a familiar voice answered questions in the locker room.
NFL kickers do not always meet with reporters after games. They are not always requested. Their impact is often overlooked.
But for the seventh time this season, including in all five of the Ravens’ losses, five-time All-Pro Justin Tucker’s kicking erred.
He did not just miss once or twice. For the first time in 208 career games, Tucker missed three times.
“I hate that I’ve had to have this same conversation over the course of this season,” Tucker said after the Philadelphia Eagles’ 24-19 win at Baltimore. “But that’s something that comes with the territory in this job description – the kicks are either good or they’re not. And today I did not do a good enough job to help our team win the football game.
“I feel like I cost us this one.”
In a simplified, no-context vacuum, Tucker’s calculations add up. He missed two of his four field-goal attempts and one of his two extra-point attempts. The missed kicks, if made, would have boosted the Ravens’ score by seven in a game they lost by five.
Tucker, his teammates and his coaches know explaining their loss isn’t nearly that simple. Tucker did not yield more than 100 scrimmage yards to Eagles running back Saquon Barkley, nor did he convert just 6-of-15 third-down attempts while going more than 45 game minutes between touchdowns.
“He’s the GOAT, still,” Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson said. “We should have put more points on the board, shouldn’t have even put Tuck in those type of situations.
“Hell yeah, I’ve got confidence [in him].”
The confidence is easy to defend. Tucker’s resumé is the blueprint for NFL kicker dreams and Hall of Fame guarantees. He’s bailed the Ravens out hundreds of times in 13 years. But as Tucker’s struggles hit a new low, the Ravens can’t simply brush away the career-high 10 kicks he’s missed in 12 games.
Past performance is informative but not predictive. Kicking has a psychological element the team must consider honestly.
Through that lens, the Ravens must ask themselves: Can they trust Tucker through their final four regular-season games and into the playoffs? From what distances should they trot Tucker out, and how much insurance do they need?
What Ravens should consider for Justin Tucker’s next steps
Like Tucker, Ravens head coach John Harbaugh deserves the benefit of the doubt with this decision. He’s not only a 17-year head coach with a Super Bowl title under his belt and a 61.7 career winning percentage.
Harbaugh is also the rare NFL head coach who never coordinated offense or defense. He cut his teeth instead as a special teams coordinator, overseeing the Eagles’ special teams unit for nine seasons. Harbaugh knows what goes into coaching a kicker – and it’s fair to assume he knows more than he let on during his postgame media conference.
What did he see in Tucker’s strike and his operation?
“I just saw the misses,” Harbaugh said. “I mean, we’ll go back and look at all that stuff and try to figure out. … He’s definitely capable of making every kick.”
Tucker’s latest performance did not only include misses.
Against the Eagles, Tucker made a 34-yard field goal in the first quarter and he made a 50-yard field goal just before halftime. With three seconds to play in the game, Tucker made his extra-point attempt to bring the Ravens within five points of Philadelphia.
As notable as the distance and success of his three makes are the moments in which he made each. Tucker did not miss indefinitely after his errant kicks. He missed the first-quarter extra-point attempt and then rebounded with the 50-yarder. Tucker missed from 47 and 53 in the third quarter but then nailed his extra-point attempt at the end of the game.
That pattern reflected Tucker’s season-long performance. He has made all 10 of his field-goal attempts under 40 yards, compared to 9-of-17 from 40-plus. He has now made 42 of 44 extra-point attempts.
The Ravens’ analytics staff will not eliminate the made kicks when analyzing probabilistic outcomes of each in-game decision.
Jackson said his confidence in his kicker stems, in part, from Tucker’s successful prior game, when he hit three extra point attempts and a 45-yard field goal with no mistakes in a win over the Los Angeles Chargers. Harbaugh similarly pointed to Tucker’s established arsenal of skills.
“I just think if you look at Justin Tucker’s history, you’d have to say he’s capable of doing that,” Harbaugh said. “We need him to make those kicks. Nobody wants to make those kickers more than Justin does, I promise you that.
“He’ll be the first to tell you he needs to make as many kicks as he can.”
A possible compromise for Tucker, Ravens
Harbaugh is correct that Tucker appears physically and psychologically capable of making many kicks. His three makes Sunday, including from 50 out, do not indicate a devastating injury or debilitating yips that fully nullify his strength or focus.
Tucker spoke with poise and accountability Sunday night about the need to consider hashes and technique. He said his miss to the right reflected an imprecise strike more than a compensation for an earlier miss, and that he knows he shouldn’t dwell too deeply on the price of his misses at the expense of sharpening his preparation.
“It’s pretty raw emotionally for me,” Tucker said. “Any time we lose, especially for me given my performance today was just not up to our standard, it’s crushing. But at the end of the day, my feelings don’t really matter.
“What matters is: Get back to work and do everything I can to help this football team down the stretch.”
What will help the Ravens most down the stretch should be the guiding factor for Harbaugh and Ravens brass – even as their emotions and rich history with Tucker fight to guide decisions.
Could the Ravens reach a point where they should reconsider kicks above 40 yards? They’re not necessarily there yet, but during the bye week they’ve now reached, they should determine a formula at which they need to adjust their decision-making to reflect their kicker’s current performance rather than his prior performance. They should work out kickers, too, in case Tucker’s accuracy slips further.
Tucker has still proven more likely than not to make short and long kicks alike.
But the Ravens should think long and hard about their three losses by a margin smaller than the value of Tucker’s missed kicks.
Two weeks ago, Tucker missed from 47 and 50 in what ultimately became a two-point loss to the now AFC North-leading Pittsburgh Steelers. The Ravens’ Week 2 upset loss to the Las Vegas Raiders similarly came by just three points – and similarly included a miss from 53.
It’s not yet time to sound the alarm or fully panic. But the Ravens should consider themselves on notice. And, during the coming days of a less emotionally charged bye week, create a framework that will prepare the team for all outcomes.
Sunday, Harbaugh hinted at where that analysis has led so far.
“We’ve been working through it,” he said. “You work through it with every single player. Every single thing you fight to try to help guys to be successful. We’ll do that.
“If you’re asking are we going to move on from Justin Tucker, I’m not really planning on doing that right now. I don’t think that’d be wise.”