The only time a rookie has won NFL MVP was back in 1957. The winner was Jim Brown, arguably the greatest player in history.
Last season Houston Texans quarterback C.J. Stroud was the rare rookie who found himself in the race. He trailed off, and it seemed like it would be a long time before a rookie again made any waves in the MVP race.
Then Jayden Daniels arrived.
For the second straight season, a rookie is making the case to be in the MVP mix. It’s very early in the season, but Daniels is checking every box you’d want for the award. The Washington Commanders are atop the NFC East, due to a surprisingly efficient offense led by their electric rookie quarterback.
Daniels has been better than anyone could have realistically anticipated, and the MVP odds at BetMGM changed in a dramatic way to reflect his hot start.
Jayden Daniels’ rise up NFL MVP odds
After another big game from Daniels in a Week 5 blowout of the Cleveland Browns, he’s officially an MVP candidate if you’re judging by the odds.
As of Monday morning only four players have better odds to win MVP than Daniels, who is 10-to-1. Here are the top five:
Patrick Mahomes +300
Josh Allen +600
Lamar Jackson +650
C.J. Stroud +700
Jayden Daniels +1000
That puts Daniels ahead of all non-quarterbacks, and a lot of productive veteran QBs like Joe Burrow, Brock Purdy, Jared Goff and Dak Prescott.
And as Daniels has dazzled on the field, his MVP odds at BetMGM have seen a massive shift, even within the past couple of weeks:
Opening odds: 200-to-1
Before Week 4: 100-to-1
Before Week 5: 30-to-1
After Week 5: 10-to-1
While it seems hard to believe that a rookie could maintain an MVP pace all season, and that the Commanders can keep winning at a rate which would keep Daniels moving up in the MVP conversation, it’s not like anyone has a much better case at this early stage of the season.
Daniels building an MVP case
Mahomes’ Kansas City Chiefs are 4-0, but statistically he’s having a fairly average start to the season, especially by his standards. Allen completed just 9 of 30 passes in a Week 5 loss. Jackson has been good again, but Derrick Henry has been an even bigger part of the offense in some recent wins. Stroud has a great argument, but Daniels has a better passer rating (106.3 to 98.2), completion percentage (77.1% to 68.9%) and yards per attempt (8.7 to 7.8). And Daniels is off to a historic rushing start for a quarterback, with 300 yards through five games.
And the Commanders’ offense has gone from one of the 10 worst in the NFL last season to a pace that rivals some of the best offenses in recent NFL history. That’s without any huge improvements to the supporting cast over the offseason, aside from adding an instant superstar at quarterback.
Top-four offenses in points per drive in Weeks 1-5 since at least 2000:
1. 2020 Packers (MVP Aaron Rodgers)
2. 2000 Rams (Greatest Show on Turf / MVP Marshall Faulk)
3. 2013 Broncos (MVP Peyton Manning)
4. 2024 Commanders (Jayden Daniels)
— Austin Gayle (@austingayle_) October 7, 2024
It’s very early. It would take a nearly perfect season for a rookie to win NFL MVP, and Daniels is unlikely to have that. It also seems unlikely the Commanders will continue on what has been a remarkable pace offensively, especially when they start to face some of the tougher opponents on their schedule.
But the MVP odds are telling a story. Daniels is not just a clear NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year favorite, he’s in the conversation for the NFL’s top award too.