(Bloomberg) — South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol faces a second impeachment vote on Saturday over his short-lived attempt to impose martial law, with the result likely to either throw the nation into months of caretaker rule or give the embattled leader a further political lifeline.
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The vote, scheduled for 4 p.m. local time at the National Assembly, is underway and may take around an hour. It requires a two-thirds majority to pass, which means the opposition will need at least eight votes from Yoon’s party.
“South Korea is now at a crossroads,” Woo Won-shik, the parliamentary speaker, said at the start of the session. “I hope every single one of you will take part in the vote.”
Yoon survived the first impeachment attempt last week after members of his People Power Party boycotted the session, preventing the vote from meeting the required quorum. The chances of success seem higher this time as seven members of the party have declared their intention to support the motion.
The president has vowed to fight any case against him. “Whether they impeach me or investigate me, I will face them down with confidence,” Yoon said in a defiant televised address on Thursday.
His high-risk gamble on Dec. 3 to declare martial law, ban political activity and curb media powers has come during a period of uncertainty for South Korea. The trade-dependent economy remains vulnerable to risks like potential tariffs from President-elect Donald Trump. Bloomberg Economics estimates that the full implementation of these tariffs on China, South Korea and other trading partners could slash Seoul’s exports to the US by as much as 55%.
Tensions with North Korea remain elevated with Pyongyang’s deepening cooperation with Moscow over artillery supplies, technology and troops deeply concerning for Seoul. In trying to justify martial law, Yoon cited the need to eradicate domestic political support for North Korea among other factors.
The fallout of his shock move leaves the nation’s former defense minister under arrest and several leading military officials under investigation, a situation that potentially leaves the nation in a more vulnerable position to respond to any security flareup.
If the vote passes, Prime Minister Han Duck-soo will likely take the helm while Yoon becomes the third South Korean president to face impeachment proceedings expected to last months.
The proceedings in the Constitutional Court’s review could take up to 180 days and if the court rules against the president, he would be forced out of office, triggering a presidential election within 60 days.
If the motion fails, Yoon will remain president for now, but with a large question mark hanging over his ability to complete his term. There could be a surge of public protests against him.
The latest Gallup Korea poll showed Yoon’s approval rating at a record low 11%, with three-quarters of respondents saying he should be impeached.
Large demonstrations are expected Saturday as crowds gather across Seoul ahead of the impeachment vote. The metropolitan government said it has deployed 1,000 safety personnel, including paramedics, around the city. Last week’s protests outside the National Assembly mirrored those from 2016 that ultimately led to the ousting of former President Park Geun-hye.
Park was removed from office over an influence-peddling scandal, and Yoon was one of the prosecutors who investigated her for corruption that eventually put her behind bars.
Yoon’s relatively late switch from prosecutor to politician meant he was an outsider in the political realm from the start. He has become more and more isolated since squeaking to victory in the March 2022 election, the closest race in South Korea’s history. He still has two and a half years left in his single five-year term.
–With assistance from Heesu Lee.
(Updates to say voting has started in second paragraph)
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