You probably don’t need me to tell you the Saints’ offense is off to an historically good start, alas. New Orleans’ 91 points through the first two games of the season are the second most this century, trailing only the … 2009 Super Bowl-winning Saints, who scored 93. Derek Carr and company have so far managed one more point than the 2013 Broncos, who rewrote the NFL record book.
Things won’t maintain at this pace, but the changes made by new OC Klint Kubiak have been clear and obvious. Whereas Sean Payton leftover Pete Carmichael acted like he was more comfortable in the horse-and-buggy period than combustible engine era — let alone the electric car age — Kubiak is making no bones about the century he’s in. Via ESPN’s Seth Walder, these are the adjustments Kubiak has made: Dead last in play-action percentage last season, the Saints are now first. 25th in designed rollouts last year, New Orleans is now first. 26th in motion, fifth. It’s simple, band-wagon jumping stuff, and yet deadly effective.
It helps that the Saints have reasonably deep, varied personnel, but it’s not like this is the league’s most imposing skill corps. Chris Olave remains unproven as a genuine No. 1. Rashid Shaheed is a role player. Alvin Kamara is a starting running back nearing age 30. The play-caller is simply putting them in position to succeed, and awful and elite defenses alike in the Panthers and Cowboys have now failed to stop them. The book, of course, is going out. Defensive adjustments will be made. Derek Carr isn’t going to rain holy hellfire every week. But whereas this was a backwards-looking, fantasy-frustrating offense last year, the Saints are now going to do everything in their power to score for both themselves and the fantasy managers of America.
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Five Week 2 Storylines
Whatever the Saints are doing at quarterback, the Bears do the opposite. Then there’s how not to help your quarterback. Dealing with a sieve-like offensive line — one undoubtedly made to look worse by rookie Caleb Williams‘ inexperience — the Bears: 1. Aren’t max protecting. 2. Aren’t providing a serious rushing attack. 3. Aren’t taking clear, short middle of the field gains. 4. Doing really anything positive at all. We can’t absolve the player, of course. Williams is doing just frankly dumb things. Rookie quarterback things. But that is to be expected. The Bears’ plan to put the entire offense on his shoulders never drew much scrutiny because it seemed cool, and Williams seemed different. Well it turns out there are some inviolable laws of football nature. Being Cool out of the gate simply isn’t a viable plan. It’s time to treat Williams like a rookie and save the “win now” window for a later date.
Isiah Pacheco’s broken leg adds to the early injury darkness. 2024 has been a season of league-wide underachievement when it comes to fantasy expectations. Pacheco was bucking the trend as he held off late-summer addition Samaje Perine. No more. With I.R. in Pacheco’s future, Perine and undrafted fullback “Carson Steele” — who lost a fumble Sunday — will organize a committee for at least the next two weeks with Clyde Edwards-Helaire (personal) still on I.R. himself. Steele will be a popular add because of his folk hero status — alligator, anyone? — but Perine is probably where the money will be printed, even if Steele is first in line at the goal line. Recent Andy Reid has primarily viewed the running game as an extension of the pass, and that’s Perine’s skill-set. I’m adding both, but prioritizing Perine.
Cooper Kupp’s latest injury leaves the Rams’ offense without an identity. The plan looked very FantasyCool™ on paper — give Kupp all the work he can handle. It collapsed under any scrutiny whatsoever — this is a player who has missed 13 games since his record-setting 2021— but we were going to roll with it for as long as possible. Two quarters. That was as long as possible. Kupp now has yet another ankle injury and seems all but certain to miss Week 3 and quite possibly beyond. It has the 0-2 Rams back in their 2022 “expansion mode,” with a creaky-but-still-wily Matthew Stafford throwing to the likes of DeMarcus Robinson and Tutu Atwell behind a shaky offensive line. We’re starting Robinson in fantasy, but Atwell has a zero-point floor and TE Colby Parkinson was a Week 2 mega-bust. This could get much worse before it gets better with the 49ers and Bears’ strong defenses on tap.
Jaxon Smith-Njigba welcomes himself to the fantasy party. The Seahawks were missing Kenneth Walker and Zach Charbonnet was struggling. You know what might work? A whole lot of short looks to former first-rounder JSN. Enter career highs in receptions (12), targets (16) and yards (117). Maybe it was an “extension of the running game” one-off without KWIII. It was also proof of concept that Smith-Njigba can indeed do this at the NFL level. Not that it was all even checkdowns. JSN drew 3-4 deeper targets, emphasis on –er. It’s maybe a tad presumptuous to label JSN an every-week WR3, especially after Tyler Lockett out-produced him in Week 1, but it probably makes too much sense not to happen.
Garrett Wilson provides another meager fantasy return. If JSN is making fantasy managers happy, Wilson has them sad. Through two weeks and two different game scripts, he’s caught 10-of-17 targets for 117 scoreless yards. He’s not disastrously off expectations, but there’s been little hint of a coming fantasy explosion in an offense that wants to mind the gap. Run the ball, avoid turnovers, and let the defense go to work. There’s also the matter of the mindmeld that Aaron Rodgers seems to demand of all his No. 1 wideouts. Until we see it demonstrated on the field, Wilson might spend more time on the WR1/2 borderline than summer drafters were expecting.
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Five More Week 2 Storylines
Braelon Allen looks like part of the Jets’ offense. If we are worried about Garrett Wilson, we are bullish on Allen. Now the youngest non-QB to ever score two touchdowns in a game, Allen found the promised land via both land and air in Nashville, and looked explosive doing it. Although understandably deemed a “change of pace” by coach Robert Saleh, the boss also talked up Allen’s three-down prowess. Considering the Jets’ lack of pass-catching options, it’s all too easy to envision them cooking up a light committee and potentially giving Allen enough touches to provide semi-regular FLEX returns. Only semi regular because Breece Hall is still the alpha, though on the other hand, the Jets are most used to Hall having backfield help. It dings Hall ever so slightly down the RB1 ranks, and makes Allen someone who needs to be 100 percent rostered as the rare contingency back who might actually create standalone value.
The Chargers are indeed bad for fantasy business. Not that they care. Justin Herbert has now set back-to-back career lows for passing yards: In victories. Harball is working because it’s smart, especially as a zag against NFL defenses now trained to eliminate all traces of the pass. The “problems,” at least for now, are purely superficial, namely not enough fantasy points for us. Herbert himself is barely even QB2 relevant. Quentin Johnston is exceeding expectations … and struggling for WR4 value. Ladd McConkey is a blind punt. Will Dissly and Hayden Hurst are sharing the pie at tight end. The exception is the backfield, where J.K. Dobbins is churning up RB2 yards and Gus Edwards is seeing FLEX workloads. The problems there are Dobbins has been big-play reliant while Edwards has been inefficient. Big runs will happen when the offense is designed to engineer them, but Dobbins isn’t quite yet locked into the top 24 on a weekly basis.
Broncos’ nonfunctional offense becomes non-playable for fantasy. It’s not like we had high expectations here. At best, Bo Nix was a superflex bench stash. But his start has been poor enough that Courtland Sutton is no longer startable, and Javonte Williams is barely FLEX relevant. Coach Sean Payton is predictably pledging major changes ahead of Week 3 — and to find the guy who did this — but at best, that’s going to mean a few more forced jump balls to Sutton and maybe more regular checkdowns to Jaleel McLaughlin. Nix has to be considered totally incapable of pushing the ball down the field until proven otherwise. The Bucs are not an amazing get-right spot for Week 3 after they shut down Jared Goff on Sunday.
Brock Bowers continues to look like a first-round pick. I was out on Bowers this summer. I viewed him as the non-primary option in a conservative, run-first offense. Hell, he could have even been behind Jakobi Meyers. People much smarter than me — hello Patrick Kerrane — said this outlook was too pessimistic and that Bowers’ game was designed to allow for easy layups instead of complicated coaching calculus. So far, he has indeed made it easy, catching four more balls than any other tight end and averaging more PPR points than any seam stretcher except Isaiah Likely. We’ll see how Bowers adjusts to the word being out — “as a defense, we need to key in on Bowers, not just Davante Adams” — but Bowers is the clear No. 2 in an offense with a non-functional rushing attack. The short targets should continue to flow straight into your bank account.
Travis Kelce’s slow start continues. One player Bowers is soundly out-producing? The best to do it at the position over the past 10 years. Kelce has been limited to four grabs for 39 scoreless yards, with his biggest Sunday contribution being drawing a chain-moving penalty. He did nearly cash in a goal-line carry, something that could be a more regular than expected feature with Isiah Pacheco (leg) now on the shelf. We aren’t worried, per se. We are just continuing to adjust expectations downward for a 34-year-old who started to look old last season and is looking even moreso this year.
Questions
1. I think I’ve asked this one before, but … do the Cowboys ever tire of this?
2. So Shane Waldron, what’s Plan B?
3. Can someone please, please, please introduce Doug Pederson to a Shanahan or Kubiak?
Early Waivers Look (Players rostered in less than 50 percent of Yahoo leagues)
QB: Geno Smith (vs. MIA), Derek Carr (vs. PHI), Sam Darnold (vs. HOU), Deshaun Watson (vs. NYG), Justin Fields (vs. LAC)
RB: Carson Steele, Bucky Irving, Braelon Allen, Ty Chandler, Samaje Perine, Antonio Gibson, Rico Dowdle, Blake Corum
WR: DeMarcus Robinson, Jerry Jeudy, Quentin Johnston, Darnell Mooney, Jalen Nailor, Ray-Ray McCloud, Wan’Dale Robinson, Jalen Tolbert, Josh Reynolds, Tutu Atwell
TE: Hunter Henry, Jonnu Smith, Cole Kmet, Mike Gesicki, Zach Ertz, Noah Fant
DEF: Raiders (vs. CAR), Bucs (vs. DEN), Colts (vs. CHI), Packers (@TEN), Seahawks (vs. MIA), Patriots (@NYJ)
Stats of the Week
The Chargers are averaging 198 rushing yards per game and 5.56 yards per carry through the first two weeks of the Jim Harbaugh era.
Sunday was Hunter Henry’s first 100-yard performance in five years, and just the second of his career.
Via Joseph Person: “The Panthers are 2-for-22 on third down in their first two games.”
George Pickens had 94 yards that didn’t show up in the box score, including a touchdown.
89. That’s the percent of the Cowboys’ dropbacks where Jalen Tolbert ran a route. Garbage time helped, but the long-in-the-making 2022 third-rounder posted new career highs across the board with six catches on nine targets for 82 yards.
Via Ian Hartitz: “Justin Tucker has only made two of his last eight field goal attempts of 50+ yards. 11 of his last 22.”
Awards Section
Week 2 Fantasy All-Pro Team: QB Kyler Murray, RB Alvin Kamara, RB De’Von Achane, WR DK Metcalf, WR Malik Nabers, WR Marvin Harrison Jr., TE George Kittle
Week 2 All Bank Examiner Squad: QB Anthony Richardson, RB Rachaad White, RB D’Andre Swift, WR Ja’Marr Chase, WR Michael Pittman, WR Amari Cooper, TE Travis Kelce, TE Tyler Conklin (honorary)
Tweet of the Week, from Marcel Louis-Jacques: “If Sam Darnold completes his Geno Smith reclamation arc, the Jets should be court martialed.”
Tweet of the Week II, from James D’Apice II: “Matt Eberflus has a Joe DiMaggio type steak going of failed challenges. It’s really impressive at this point.”
Best Reason Not To Throw A Pass Award: Malik Willis passing on a third down attempt after C Josh Myers threw up on the ball.
Good Samaritan Of The Week Award: Tyler Lockett telling Jonathan Jones his game-changing overtime pass interference penalty was, indeed, not a penalty.
The, Uhh, Maybe You Should Have Signed A Kicker Award: I feel like the Giants, who scored three touchdowns but missed two two-point conversions and lost to a team that kicked seven field goals, should have maybe signed a kicker.