Monday, November 25, 2024

Tech Earnings Fail to Fire Up Traders With Sky-High Expectations

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(Bloomberg) — Investors had hoped earnings from five of the world’s biggest companies would shake the stocks out of a malaise and provide a fresh jolt for the S&P 500.

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Instead, in many cases they were left wanting.

While Microsoft Corp., Apple Inc., Alphabet Inc., Amazon.com Inc. and Meta Platforms Inc. all topped analyst expectations for sales and profits last week, the results weren’t strong enough to justify their lofty multiples relative to the broader market.

With few reasons to bid up the group, technology investors hit the sell button, resulting in a 1.8% drop in the Bloomberg Magnificent 7 Index, with only Alphabet and Amazon ending the week in the green. The S&P 500 fell 1.4%, weighed down by the big-tech group.

“Investors had higher numbers in mind,” said Michael Casper, equity strategist at Bloomberg Intelligence. “They’re expecting more from AI and these AI projects than what they’ve gotten so far.”

The issue isn’t the current quarter per se: the group of seven companies is on track to deliver profit growth of 30% in three-month period through September, which would beat the estimate of 18% at the start of earnings season, according to data compiled by Bloomberg Intelligence.

The trouble is next year’s profit outlook remains murky with the tech giants continuing to spend heavily on infrastructure to support more AI computing power. Analysts have been cutting their 2025 profit-growth projections for the Magnificent Seven cohort since earnings season began more than two weeks ago.

Higher spending on artificial intelligence dominated Magnificent Seven earnings this season. Amazon, Microsoft, Alphabet and Meta pumped a record $59 billion into capital expenditures in the third quarter while pledging to spend significantly more next year.

“Right now you have a little bit of Silicon Valley arrogance that says, we just are going to spend, because we know better than you do,” said Ted Mortonson, managing director at Robert W Baird & Co.

While there were signs that revenue from AI-related demand is picking up steam, the message from management teams was that investors will need to wait longer for the big payoffs to show up.

Microsoft’s AI business is on track to exceed an annual revenue run rate of $10 billion next quarter, which would make it the fastest business in the company’s history to reach that milestone, Chief Executive Officer Satya Nadella said on the earnings call.

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