Manchester United head to Aston Villa on Sunday with manager Erik ten Hag under renewed pressure and scrutiny.
United are 13th in the Premier League having lost three of their opening six games, and were minutes away from another damaging defeat by Porto in the Europa League on Thursday.
But if we dig deeper, what do the stats from United’s Premier League performance say about Ten Hag’s two-year reign?
Promising start, then a decline as rivals outperform him
Ten Hag took charge at United in the summer of 2022 – the latest man charged with restoring the 20-time English champions to the top of the pile.
United finished third in his first season, and also won the EFL Cup.
But how has the Dutchman fared when compared with Arsenal boss Mikel Arteta and former Liverpool manager Jurgen Klopp – two men similarly tasked with bringing glory back to expectant clubs?
Arteta and Klopp took over mid-season with their clubs 10th in the table. Ten Hag, meanwhile, inherited a team that had finished sixth the previous season.
Ten Hag had the brightest start – and restored United to the top four in his first season – before a clear decline that has continued beyond his second campaign.
Klopp’s trajectory was good once he got his first season out of the way – having reached the top four, he remained there for a season and a half before elevating Liverpool to title challengers.
Of the three managers, Arteta needed more time. His upward trajectory from 60 games onwards has been remarkable – closely following Klopp from the 80-game mark.
Ten Hag v Solskjaer v Mourinho
It is a similar story when you compare Ten Hag to his predecessors at United.
Jose Mourinho was appointed after the club had finished fifth and won the FA Cup under Louis van Gaal. He was succeeded by Ole Gunnar Solskjaer, who was initially appointed on an interim basis with the club sixth in the league.
From a high of 2.3 points per game, Ten Hag’s current rolling 10-game average of 1.3 is equalled only by Ole Gunnar Solskjaer’s final days at the club.
However all three managers’ rolling averages are up and down – underlining United’s inconsistency since the legendary Sir Alex Ferguson retired in 2013.
If you go further back and compare Ten Hag to Ferguson, the Dutchman has actually secured one more point than the Scot at this point in their league careers.
For context, Ferguson took over United when they were 19th in the table.
Goals scored the problem?
United’s pressing and team structure has drawn much criticism over the past year.
But looking at the stats, the lack of goals compared to their rivals stands out.
United are 10th for goals scored – 84 shy of their city rivals and behind Brighton and Brentford since Ten Hag’s appointment.
They do, however, have the fifth best defence. But still they would need to tighten up to the tune of 36 goals to have been as strong as City during Ten Hag’s time.
Using the expected goals model, the difference between United’s attack and defence is in line with Brentford and Aston Villa since Ten Hag took over.
The gap to Manchester City, Arsenal and Liverpool is significant. Those xG difference values of 70+ are a reminder of the heights to hit to be title contenders.
Mind the gap
The downturn under Ten Hag is underlined by the increased gap last season between United and the champions.
From being 14 points off top spot in 2022-23, they slumped to 31 behind last season.
However, when you map that out over the past six seasons, 2023-24 starts to look more typical – with the club more than 30 points off the top four times.
And finally, spending
One of the biggest contributory factors to expectation is transfer spending at the club – and the fact the majority of the best XI are now Ten Hag signings.
Comparing him to his predecessors, you can see he has overseen the largest investment in the team since Ferguson.