(Bloomberg) — A recent plunge in shares of China’s top online recruitment firm may have further to run as the nation’s economic struggles sap demand for workers.
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US-traded shares of Kanzhun Ltd. have slumped 45% from a high in May, with a push last week from a report of quarterly revenue that missed analyst estimates for the first time since its trading debut in 2021.
Backed by Tencent Holdings Ltd., the firm operates a site called Boss Zhipin that connects enterprise customers and jobseekers via direct messaging. Despite its leading position in China, comments by Kanzhun management in the results briefing have raised concerns.
“The company had a negative outlook that suggested a lack of visibility due to macroeconomic soft demand for recruitment services,” Morningstar Inc. analyst Kai Wang wrote in a note. “We recommend waiting for Boss Zhipin to show greater incremental users and enterprises before investing in the stock.”
China’s youth unemployment rose in July for the first time in five months, reaching 17.1%, underscoring the difficulties facing graduates as a property slump drags on the world’s No. 2 economy. The youth jobless rate has climbed in recent years on reduced hiring for corporate positions.
Morningstar’s Wang notes Boss Zhipin is seeing faster growth in blue collar hiring than white collar. Summer seasonality raised demand for travel-related jobs, and increased manufacturing is seen providing a possible boost ahead of year-end holidays. China’s services activity expanded less than expected in August, however, while factory activity contracted for a fourth-straight month.
Some investors and analysts remain positive on Kanzhun due to its dominance over competition and efforts to please shareholders, including a recently announced $200 million share buyback.
“The company is healthy as an industry leader with $2 billion in cash on the balance sheet, is cash flow positive and profitable,” said Nejteh Demirian, an advisor at Blackhorn Wealth Management Ltd. in Hong Kong. “There’s significant market share they can grab from competitors, and management is doing the right thing by returning capital to investors.”
Kanzhun’s American depositary receipts have gotten cheaper, trading at 14 times estimated forward earnings compared with their five-year average of 40 times. Japan’s Recruit Holdings Co., which runs job-search site Indeed, is trading at 30 times expected profits.
Chinese recruiters still face pressure in the near term at least, with continuing releases of disappointing macro data and Beijing’s efforts to revitalize the economy having limited impact. The company has been looking at overseas expansion, though this is expected to take time.
China’s jobs outlook remains pretty challenging, though hiring in some strategic industries such as electronics and electric vehicles probably has remained decent, said Michelle Lam, Greater China economist at Societe Generale SA.
“Although the official unemployment rate has remained rather stable, other indicators from private data sources, such as hiring salaries in major cities, suggest that the job market recovery has remained very slow,” she said. “It is unlikely to recover soon given that there is very limited appetite for the government to employ major stimulus.”
–With assistance from Josh Xiao.
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