Tesla (TSLA) vehicle insurance registrations in China retreated sequentially for a second straight week, but the EV giant is trending toward a strong quarterly performance with official fourth-quarter delivery numbers expected next week.
Tesla insurance registrations in China totaled 17,600 for the week of Dec. 16-Dec. 22, down about 5% from 18,500 the previous week, according to data compiled by CnEVPost. With just one week left in the fourth quarter, Tesla registrations in China, a rough gauge for deliveries, are up 12% compared to last quarter and have increased 13% vs. a year ago.
Tesla’s year-to-date China registrations, which lagged earlier this year, turned positive in the third quarter and are now up about 7.5% compared to the same time frame in 2023.
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Reports circulated on Monday that Tesla China has sold out of the Model Y vehicle among speculation that the revamped version will begin production in the first half of 2025. Meanwhile, the company on Monday extended incentives and discounts on the Model 3 and Model Y.
The EV giant is expected to report full Q4 vehicle delivery data on or around Jan. 2. Tesla is attempting to shatter its previous delivery record and while analyst consensus predicts the company setting a new quarterly record for vehicle deliveries, it remains to be seen whether it will be enough to propel the company to yearly unit delivery growth.
A Monday note from Barclays estimated Tesla’s total Q4 deliveries at 515,000 units, the magic number which would represent year-over-year delivery growth compared to 1.8 million in 2023. The analysts wrote this will “keep stock’s narrative momentum strong.”
However, the firm believes investor focus on Tesla stock’s fundamentals is generally limited and that a light near-term volume miss “would likely do little to dampen” TSLA’s rally, fueled by President-elect Donald Trump, autonomous vehicle and artificial intelligence.
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Meanwhile, Barclays also wrote that Tesla’s Q4 result is likely “immaterial to the majority of the current Tesla bull case.”
TSLA shares surged 7.4% to 462.25 during market action on Tuesday after rising 2.3% on Monday.
Tesla Q4 Deliveries
The EV giant has said it expects “slight” vehicle deliveries growth this year, but with the end of the fourth quarter fast approaching, Tesla finds itself looking for answers with unit sales lagging in the U.S. and Europe.
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The company saw vehicle deliveries rise 38% to 1.8 million in 2023 and while Tesla has said that sort of increase this year is out of reach, it is predicting growth in its automobile segment.
“Despite ongoing macroeconomic conditions, we expect to achieve slight growth in vehicle deliveries in 2024,” Tesla said in its third-quarter earnings release.
Looking further out, Chief Executive Elon Musk proclaimed on the Q3 earnings call that vehicle sales could grow “20%-30%” in 2025.
With Tesla predicting slight vehicle delivery growth in 2024 vs. 2023’s 1.81 million, the EV giant needs 514,925 deliveries in Q4, far more than the Q4 2023 record of 484,507. Analyst consensus currently forecasts 498,000 vehicle deliveries in Q4 and 1.79 million for 2024, according to FactSet.
Tesla Stock Performance
The stock booked a 3.5% decline last week. However, TSLA is on a 71% tear since Trump’s election win, as investors speculate that self-driving is coming soon, with the Trump administration easing the regulatory path for autonomous vehicles.
On Wednesday, Tesla stock retreated 8.3% to 440.13, after hitting a record high of 488.54 intraday. Despite last week’s decline, Tesla stock is still above its 21-day line and 50-day moving average. Shares are still in a huge uptrend and due for some consolidation.
Tesla stock on Dec. 11 cleared the company’s longtime all-time high of 414.50, which it hit on Nov. 4, 2021. The stock had previously last touched 400 in January 2022, according to MarketSurge charts.
Tesla stock has surged in recent weeks in part on hopes that self-driving is finally on the way. Tesla topped the $1 trillion mark on Nov. 8 for the first time in two years. On Nov. 6, Tesla stock gapped up above an alternate handle buy point of 273.54 but was quickly extended.
Tesla stock popped 3.2% to 369.49 on Dec. 5, clearing a recent range, which could have offered an add-on entry for existing TSLA holders.
TSLA stock is now on the IBD Leaderboard watchlist.
Tesla stock ranks first in the 35-member IBD Auto Manufacturers industry group. The stock has a 93 Composite Rating out of a best-possible 99. Shares also have a 97 Relative Strength Rating and a 78 EPS Rating.
Please follow Kit Norton on X @KitNorton for more coverage.
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