A simple look at a box score or a study of fantasy football categories doesn’t always tell the whole story of how a player is performing. Dalton Del Don attempts to identify misleading numbers that are worth a closer look.
Yes … The Numbers Do Lie.
Brock Purdy’s five touchdown passes are a lie
Purdy isn’t top 10 in TD passes this season despite having the second-most passing yards and leading the league in YPA by a full half-yard. He also leads the NFL in adjusted EPA/play and has 257 more air yards than any other quarterback. Purdy is throwing by far the deepest downfield among the leaders in percentage of air yards deemed catchable.
Purdy led the NFL in TD% each of the least two seasons (6.9% & 6.2%), but he’s fallen outside the top 12 this year at 4.1%. He’s dealt with the most dropped deep passes while somehow creating the most time to throw behind a shaky offensive line. After recording the best YPA (9.6) season of all time last year (minimum 350 pass attempts), Purdy’s remarkable efficiency (9.3 YPA) has remained despite the 49ers ranking 31st in yards after the catch this season.
Purdy has underwhelming TD stats despite ranking fourth in red-zone attempts and sixth in passes inside the 10. He ranks fourth in end-zone targets. Dak Prescott somehow has more TD throws despite not attempting a single pass inside the 10-yard line this season. Joe Burrow has 17 attempts inside the 10 and 14 inside the five.
Purdy has averaged more RZ passes and EZ targets over the first four weeks than when he threw 26 touchdowns over the final 12 games last season, so regression is coming.
Purdy has proven he can play without his star teammates, and they are all finally getting healthy outside of Christian McCaffrey. The 49ers routinely have the highest weekly implied team total, and San Francisco’s defense has suffered injuries and was allowing the third-most YPP before facing New England. This is a highly favorable setup for Purdy, who continues to get even better after playing through an elbow injury last season.
Purdy is getting 1.25 TD passes per game, but he’s likely to average 2.0 moving forward.
Aaron Jones’ one rushing touchdown is a lie
Jones ranks fifth in carries inside the five-yard line this season, and the other RBs on the leaderboard have averaged 4.3 rushing scores. Jones is also among the league leaders in red zone rush team% and ranks third in both weighted opportunity and expected fantasy points. He’s looked rejuvenated with a key role on a Minnesota offense averaging the third-most points per play this season.
Sam Darnold’s NFL-high touchdown rate (10.4%!) is sure to regress (Josh Allen is second at 6.9%), as his career TD% is 3.9. Ty Chandler has just four opportunities in the red zone all season (none inside the five), while Jones has 25. It’s not a favorable upcoming schedule (NYJ, bye, DET) for Jones, but it eases considerably over the second half.
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Jones is getting 5.0 YPC and seeing high-value touches on a potent Vikings offense, so touchdowns are coming.
Tee Higgins’ 7.2 fantasy points per game are a lie
Higgins has a much higher target share (23.5%), first-read target rate (31.0%) and air yards share (34.9%) than Ja’Marr Chase (18.3%, 24.4%, 24.2%) this season. It’s just a two-game sample, but Higgins was returning from an injury and should be getting healthier now. Higgins is the WR63, but he’s the WR5 in expected fantasy points. Meanwhile, Chase is the WR51 in expected fantasy points (all his TDs have come from 30+ yards), and his first-read target rate has dropped significantly since 2022.
Higgins drew two DPIs last week and was tackled at the one-yard line, so he’s due for major regression while seeing such good usage. The Bengals have the second-highest neutral pass rate in the league, and Burrow’s wrist looks healthy while leading the league in end-zone targets (he’s also now past his worst month historically).
Higgins is a prime buy-low candidate in fantasy leagues.
Geno Smith’s four touchdown passes are a lie
Smith leads the NFL in completions, attempts and passing yards but is tied for 17th in touchdown passes. He has the lowest off-target% on throws 10+ air yards behind an improved offensive line. Seattle ranks third in plays per game and first in pass rate over expectation. The Seahawks are loaded at wide receiver, and the NFC West is conducive for shootouts.
More red-zone attempts would help (Smith ranked sixth in end-zone targets in 2023), and it’s unsustainable for Seattle to continue scoring 67% of its touchdowns on the ground. Smith led the NFC in passing touchdowns just two years ago, so his lowly 2.5% TD rate is sure to regress.
Amari Cooper’s WR48 rank is a lie
Cooper is a repeat name here, and his problem at quarterback remains. Still, he dropped a 36-yard touchdown in Week 1, was robbed of a 65-yard TD in Week 3 and had an 82-yard score called back by penalty last week.
Cooper is the WR48 but the WR8 in expected fantasy points. He ranks fourth in air yards, although admittedly some of them are more prayer yards. The Browns get a Washington secondary this week allowing the most fantasy points to wide receivers this season. There’s a real chance Jameis Winston is starting for Cleveland at some point, so Cooper’s a possible buy-low opportunity.