The Fantasy Football Numbers Do Lie: Stats say George Pickens’ Week 7 breakout was the real deal

A simple look at a box score or a study of fantasy football categories doesn’t always tell the whole story of how a player is performing. Dalton Del Don attempts to identify misleading numbers that are worth a closer look.

Yes … The Numbers Do Lie.

George Pickens’ one touchdown catch is a lie

Pickens has just one TD catch despite seeing the third most red-zone targets and the most inside the five-yard line this season. Pickens has the fourth-lowest percentage of fantasy points from touchdowns among the top 36 WRs. Pickens is the WR34 in fantasy points per game, but he’s the WR13 in expected fantasy points. An increase in playing time and a change at quarterback will help him approach those expectations moving forward.

Pickens saw a season-high 93% route share last week, when he was also given a whopping 70% air yards share from Russell Wilson. His air yards per target were a season high, and he led all WRs in fantasy usage by a wide margin. Pickens got 2.40 YPRR, also drew the second most pass inference penalty yards in the league and saw two targets inside the five, which nearly doubled his previous season total (three). He’s earned 46% and 40% first-read target rates over the last two weeks and ranks sixth in ESPN’s Open Score this season.

Pickens was helped by a fortunate bounce and a Sauce Gardner injury last week, but it’s clear he’ll benefit from Wilson taking over. Fields has averaged just 184.3 passing yards this season, up from his career mark of 169.1. Wilson has averaged 232.4 pass yards in his career and has historically been among the league leaders in end-zone targets. Pittsburgh will remain run-heavy, but Pickens’ schedule goes from difficult to favorable. The Steelers have faced top-eight defenses in WR fantasy points allowed in four of their last six games but get bottom-eight opponents in six of seven games after their bye.

Pickens’ stats are misleading, as he has top-20 WR upside moving forward.

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De’Von Achane’s RB24 rank is a lie

Achane has been a fantasy disappointment while ranking as the RB24 in points per game this season. He left one game after just 11 snaps, and Achane is the RB10 in expected fantasy points, so his role has been incredibly encouraging. Of course, Tua Tagovailoa’s injury has been the main culprit for the lack of production, as Miami has averaged fewer points per game than the last two winless teams and the Bryce Young-led Panthers.

The Dolphins’ offense wasn’t overly impressive with Tagovailoa earlier this season, but they produced 400 yards (6.2 YPP) in Week 1 (in a favorable matchup). Achane is due for touchdown regression having the second-most carries with one touchdown, and Miami’s league-low red-zone TD% (35.7) is sure to improve. Achane operated as the RB1 and had a strong Utilization Score during Raheem Mostert’s return last week.

The Dolphins have the sixth-highest implied team total (25.5 points) this week, so Tagovailoa’s return is expected to have a significant impact. Achane can be a top-10 RB moving forward should health cooperate.

Jordan Mason’s three TD runs are a lie, BUT …

Mason has the second-most carries and the second most rushing yards, but he’s been stuck on three touchdowns since September. Mason hasn’t been used nearly the same as a receiver as Christian McCaffrey, but he’s tied with Kyren Williams for the league lead in red-zone carries. Both backs have eight more than the next closest RB in RZ rush attempts, and Williams has run for eight touchdowns. Mason has three more carries inside the 10 than any other running back, but he’s converted just one-of-seven carries inside the five into scores.

Mason was tackled at the 1-yard line last week, and the 49ers’ sixth worst red-zone TD% (45.1) should regress after the team led the NFL (68%) last season. Mason is clearly due for TD regression while averaging the eighth-most touches per game (19.7). He also has a terrific matchup against Dallas when San Francisco might be missing Deebo Samuel among others.

However, Mason is playing through a sprained shoulder that limited him in practice Wednesday, and there could be added risk with his game Sunday night. Moreover, McCaffrey is expected to return after the 49ers’ Week 9 bye, so Mason’s role could soon quickly diminish (CMC’s health remains a big question mark, to be fair).

Mason has been a terrific late round flier/waiver wire add even while scoring fewer touchdowns than expected, but his role could look much different coming out of the bye.

Josh Jacobs’ one TD run is a lie

Jacobs ranks third in carries and fourth in rushing yards this season, but he ranks 37th in touchdown runs. He’s one of just six backs who’ve seen 100% of their team’s carries inside the five-yard line, where Jacobs has only punched in one-of-six rush attempts; he was 10-of-19 in those situations over the last two seasons.

Emanuel Wilson had only a 21% snap share last week, and Jacobs has averaged 19.3 touches over the last three games. Green Bay is averaging the seventh-most points per game (26.6) – and that’s with Malik Willis starting twice. Jordan Love has run incredibly hot with touchdown passes, as his 8.4% TD rate leads the league by a wide margin – and would be the highest in a season since Aaron Rodgers (8.7%) in 2020. Jacobs averaged 11 rushing touchdowns over 2020-2022, and Love’s TD rate will regress.

Jacobs secured his first TD catch of his career last week, and more rushing scores are coming.