We recently compiled a list of the 13 Best Commodity Stocks To Buy According to Analysts. In this article, we are going to take a look at where The Mosaic Company (NYSE:MOS) stands against the other commodity stocks.
Two major trends that are shaping commodity markets are the rising interconnection of the market and the increasing importance of power in the energy transition, as per a report. The link between necessary commodities for the energy transition, such as LNG and metals, grew to 56% in 2022-23, up from 27% in 2015-19. With the introduction of more than 100 new tankers in the previous three years, the supply of LNG is rising dramatically. By 2028, it is anticipated that there will be more LNG carriers than oil carriers. Flexible contracts and increased competition between Europe and Asia are the main causes of this change.
Moreover, estimates suggest that power will play a larger part in the energy transition by 2040, contributing between $1.3 trillion and $2.4 trillion, expanding at a rate of up to 5% annually. Since renewable energy is predicted to account for the majority of the power mix between 2030 and 2050, significant investments in transmission networks, flexible power assets, and renewable energy sources will be required to meet net-zero targets. Up to 50% of the steel, copper, and aluminum needed for production will come from wind turbines alone.
Meanwhile, it is becoming more difficult to reduce inflation as global commodity prices level off, according to the World Bank’s April 2024 Commodity Markets Outlook. The price decline from mid-2022 to mid-2023 was 40%, but it has since stabilized. However, since the middle of 2023, indices of commodities prices has largely not altered. The World Bank projects that global commodity prices will fall by 3% in 2024 and 4% in 2025, assuming that geopolitical tensions do not flare up again. Inflation will continue to rise above central bank targets despite this modest decline as per the report World Bank.
Oil prices are still high as the world economy is going down; Brent crude is expected to average $84 a barrel by 2024, as per the World Bank. Prices might rise above $100 in the event of global upheaval, providing investors in oil substantial profits. Secondly, due to geopolitical uncertainty and the robust demand from central banks in developing countries, gold is predicted to reach record highs in 2024. This confirms gold’s reputation as a “safe haven” asset in times of market volatility.
Moreover, the demand for metals like copper and aluminum is being driven by investments in green technologies. Already at a two-year high, copper prices are predicted to grow by 5% in 2024, while aluminum prices are forecasted to rise by 2% due to rising demand for renewable energy infrastructure and electric vehicles.
On the other hand, a report from a large US bank stated that, in May, commodity prices reached all-time highs, driven by increases of 74% in only 1.5 months for U.S. natural gas, copper, gold, and cocoa. A retreat in June was brought on by profit-taking and worries about the U.S. economic slowdown. By year’s end, Natasha Kaneva projects a 10% growth in the commodity market, citing weather-related supply chain disruptions and favorable fundamentals that might raise the price of gas, oil, and agricultural products. Energy transition commodities may see more gains from China’s decarbonization initiatives, and gold prices may reach $2,600/oz by 2025 as a result of Fed rate cuts and central bank easing.
Methodology:
We sifted through holdings of commodity ETFs to form an initial list of 20 commodity stocks. Then we selected the 13 stocks that had the highest upside potential based on analysts’ consensus. We have only included stocks in our list with an upside potential of 30% or higher. The stocks are ranked in ascending order of the upside potential.
Why are we interested in the stocks that hedge funds pile into? The reason is simple: our research has shown that we can outperform the market by imitating the top stock picks of the best hedge funds. Our quarterly newsletter’s strategy selects 14 small-cap and large-cap stocks every quarter and has returned 275% since May 2014, beating its benchmark by 150 percentage points. (see more details here)
A farmer tending to his crops in a field, with a fertiliser bag nearby.
The Mosaic Company (NYSE:MOS)
Upside Potential: 37.27%
One of the biggest manufacturers of phosphate and potash fertilizers globally, The Mosaic Company (NYSE:MOS) was established in 2004 from the merger of IMC Global and Cargill’s fertilizer division. The company’s businesses include potash mines in Saskatchewan, New Mexico, and Brazil, as well as phosphate rock mines in Florida, Brazil, and Peru. Moreover, Mosaic operates a sizable fertilizer distribution network in Brazil through Mosiac Fertilizantes, a firm it purchased from Vale in 2018.
Phosphates made up around 33% and potash about 57% of its overall gross revenues in 2023. The remaining funds come from the fertilizer segment in Brazil. The US phosphate rock mines owned by the company and its potash properties in Canada give the company an ongoing source of raw materials for its products. Mosaic should eventually profit from the rising demand for fertilizer around the world.
The historical flooding problems at the firm’s K3 Esterhazy potash mine have been resolved, and this will bring its potash production costs closer to those of its low-cost Canpotex competitor as per analysts.
The Mosaic Company (NYSE:MOS)’s Q2 2024 results highlighted reduced fertilizer prices, particularly potash, as companywide operating earnings fell 37% YoY.
Adam Samuelson, an analyst at Goldman Sachs, kept his Buy rating on the company due to internal efficiency improvements and positive developments in the phosphate market. Future growth is anticipated to be driven by the company’s proactive strategy along with favorable market conditions.
Ariel Focus Fund stated the following regarding The Mosaic Company (NYSE:MOS) in its first quarter 2024 investor letter:
“There were a few notable performance detractors in the quarter. Shares of producer and marketer of crop nutrients, The Mosaic Company (NYSE:MOS), declined in the period, as weaker than expected phosphates and fertilizer volumes as well as higher raw material and production costs weighed on the bottom-line. Management reiterated expectations for tight global grain and oilseed markets in 2024 and believe growers will continue to be incentivized to maximize yields by applying fertilizers. Meanwhile, MOS is focused on cost discipline, free cash flow generation and paying down debt, while continuing to return significant capital to shareholders through buybacks. Given management’s disciplined approach towards capital allocation, we continue to believe the company is well positioned from a risk/reward standpoint.”
MOS is one of the Best Commodity Stocks To Buy According to Analysts since it has promising growth potential, as seen by 14 analysts. It has a consensus Buy rating with an average price target of $33.33 with upside potential of 37.27% from the current stock price.
Overall MOS ranks 6th on our list of the best commodity stocks to buy according to analysts. While we acknowledge the potential of MOS as an investment, our conviction lies in the belief that some AI stocks hold greater promise for delivering higher returns, and doing so within a shorter time frame. If you are looking for an AI stock that is more promising than MOS but that trades at less than 5 times its earnings, check out our report about the cheapest AI stock.
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Disclosure: None. This article is originally published at Insider Monkey.