Wednesday, October 16, 2024

The numbers behind Forest’s fine defensive start

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Nottingham Forest’s transition from new arrivals hoping to avoid relegation into an established Premier League outfit is gaining momentum.

After 16th and 17th-placed finishes since their return to the top flight in 2022 – the latter made more nervy by a four-point deduction for breaching financial rules – Nuno Espirito Santo’s side are in the top half after seven games.

The foundation for this positive start has been their impressive defence.

At full-back, Ola Aina has finally found consistency and fitness, while Alex Moreno has largely impressed since his loan move from Aston Villa.

In central defence, the arrival of Nikola Milenkovic to partner the revelatory Murillo has added aerial presence. Meanwhile, goalkeeper Matz Sels was inspired during the 1-1 draw at Stamford Bridge on Sunday and has conceded just six goals all season. Only league leaders Liverpool have let in fewer than Forest with Sels the only keeper to keep a clean sheet against Arne Slot’s side.

Forest’s defence is solid, making only two errors leading to an opposition shot – and that is the joint lowest in the league.

They have made 125 tackles so far this season, joint 10th, which shows they do not dive in despite giving up possession.

They also do not play the ball unnecessarily around the defence, having the fifth-lowest touches in their defensive third [1,209], the third-lowest short passes – between five and 15 yards – completed [1,001] and having made the second-most clearances [198] in the division so far.

At Anfield, quick transitions from their compact defensive unit stood out, with pacy wingers Callum Hudson-Odoi and Anthony Elanga coming off the bench to supply the winning goal on the counter attack.

This form is no fluke. Only Liverpool, Tottenham, Fulham and Manchester City have recorded fewer expected goals against so far this campaign than Nuno’s team.

After all, this is a manager who guided Wolves to consecutive seventh-placed Premier League finishes on solid defensive foundations.

Forest supporters could be forgiven for looking up the table rather than down – and possibly at their defence rather than attack as a means by which to climb it.

*All stats provided by Opta

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