Saturday, November 16, 2024

The numbers behind Hearts’ miserable start

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Seven games. Six defeats. One draw. Zero wins.

After cruising to a third-placed finish last term, Hearts’ start to the new campaign has been a miserable one.

It is a sharp demise few have seen coming, especially after delivering an impressive opening-day performance in their draw with Rangers last month.

Since that Premiership opener, it has been a run of six straight losses, during which Hearts have been dumped out of the League Cup and Europa League qualifying.

Heading into the first international break, Steven Naismith‘s side sit second bottom of the table with just one point from four league games.

So where has it gone wrong?

At the top end of the pitch, goals have dried up big time.

The two Hearts have scored across all competitions this season have come in the league – neither of those have come from talismanic striker Lawrence Shankland, who is yet to get off the mark after scoring 31 times last term.

However, the team’s total expected goals (xG) of 4.1 across their first four league games shows the chances have been there for Naismith’s side to have at least double their current goals tally.

The Gorgie men have also posted 120 touches in the opposition box – the third-highest total in the league – which proves the team are getting themselves into attacking areas.

Although only 11 shots on target have come from those touches, underlying numbers like these can often suggest the goals will eventually arrive, but there are also concerns to address defensively.

According to Opta, Hearts have made two errors leading to goals they have conceded – the most the league – while conceding seven from an xG against total of 6.06.

Following the news of his contract extension last month, coupled with last season’s success, no knee-jerk reaction can be expected in relation to the future of Naismith, who has has demonstrated his ability as a promising young coach.

But the above issues will need fixing soon before they spiral into damaging trends.

An image detailing how to follow your Premier League team on BBC Sport: "On the app? Tap the bell icon to get news about your club sent to you. Signed in on a browser? Hit 'Follow' to stay up to date.An image detailing how to follow your Premier League team on BBC Sport: "On the app? Tap the bell icon to get news about your club sent to you. Signed in on a browser? Hit 'Follow' to stay up to date.

[BBC]

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