After Crystal Palace’s 5-0 thumping of Aston Villa on the final day of last season, even manager Oliver Glasner said the summer may be coming at the wrong time.
They have not won a Premier League game since.
In the 155 days following that victory – their sixth in seven matches during a remarkable conclusion to the campaign – Palace have:
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Sold their best attacker, and one of their best defenders
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Scored just five goals, the fewest of any side in the league
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Failed to win a single top-flight game, enduring their worst start to a season since 1992-93
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Dropped into the bottom three
So, after Monday’s 1-0 defeat by Nottingham Forest, what has gone so wrong at Selhurst Park? What do the stats say about their recent run? And will it end in relegation?
What has changed?
Having taken 19 points from a possible 21 to finish last season – including eye-catching wins over Liverpool, Manchester United and Aston Villa – the difference this season has been stark.
Going forward, they are having fewer shots on goal per game, creating fewer big chances and having fewer touches in the opponents’ box.
At the other end, they are facing more shots on their own goal per match, are making more errors leading to those shots and they are not winning as many duels.
It is not a great combination.
Palace also seem to be adopting a less aggressive press in 2024-25, with just 10.4 sequences per game compared with 15.1 under Glasner last season. As a result, high turnovers are down from 10.3 to 5.3.
However, their xG stats – the amount of goals they are expected to score in each game – suggest their performances at the end of last season did not necessarily match the spectacular results.
And, by contrast, stats also show their displays during this campaign have merited more than they have received.
In their 13 games under Glasner in 2023-24 they were overperforming their xG by 7.85. So far this season they have been underperforming their xG by 4.32.
Over the course of a season, Palace fans will hope that averages out – meaning they would start picking up some deserved wins to move away from trouble.
Has losing Olise and Andersen been the difference?
Crystal Palace spent much of the summer fending off interest in their best players, but while Eberechi Eze and Marc Guehi both stayed, they were unable to keep hold of star man Michael Olise.
Bayern Munich spent about £50m to lure him from south London and he has proved impossible to replace.
The 22-year-old scored 10 goals in 19 league appearances for Palace last season and was key to their strong finish. Indeed, Glasner has only won one game without Olise in his team – a 3-0 victory over 10-man Burnley.
“Olise is a massive miss. What he’s doing now for Bayern Munich and the quality of player that he is,” former Arsenal midfielder Aaron Ramsey said on Sky Sports. “He’s maybe one of the best that’s ever come out of Palace.
“The impact he had on that team last year was remarkable, so that’s not so easy to replace.”
While the departure of centre-half Joachim Andersen to Fulham did not attract the same attention as Olise’s move, it has arguably had as big an impact.
They conceded just 14 times in 13 matches under Glasner last season, with the 28-year-old key to a stingy Eagles defence. This season, they have already let in 11.
At both ends of the pitch Palace are not the team they were six months ago.
“When you’re losing one of your best defenders and one of your best attackers, no matter what your set-up is as a manager, it’s difficult to replace that quality,” added former Liverpool defender Jamie Carragher.
‘It’s tough at the moment’
After the 1-0 loss to Nottingham Forest, in which goalkeeper Dean Henderson’s error allowed Chris Wood to score the winner, Glasner said “it’s time for hugging the players, not for kicking them”.
The former Wolfsburg and Eintracht Frankfurt boss refused to blame Henderson for his second-half mistake, adding that “we need the confidence”.
“It’s tough at the moment, to be honest,” he told BBC Sport. “We have had better times in our life together. We have to support each other to get the chin up and get ready for the next game.
“It’s not about too much tactical things – I see no problems regarding the tactics. Very often we are in the final third and making the wrong decisions. This is due to a lack of confidence.
“We are humans.”
Are Palace doomed to relegation?
It is only the fourth time in Crystal Palace’s history they have failed to win any of their opening eight league games, the previous occasion coming in the 1992-93 Premier League season. Palace were relegated at the end of that campaign.
It is not all doom and gloom for the Eagles, though, because other teams have been here before – and stayed up.
Ten times a side has failed to win any of their opening eight Premier League games and managed to avoid the drop.
Bournemouth had an identical record to Palace at this stage last season – no wins, three draws and five losses – and finished 12th.
That also happens to be one of 13 occasions a team has gone on to avoid relegation after collecting only three points from their first eight Premier League matches.
Palace have managed to do that twice themselves, in 2014 and 2018.