UFC Tampa sends us into 2025 on Saturday night as the final event of 2024’s calendar year for the MMA leader. After another year loaded with wild and chaotic moments, welterweights Colby Covington and Joaquin Buckley look to deliver one final masterpiece in the main event.
A one-time interim titleholder, Covington returns two days short of a one-year absence after last competing in December 2023. On the other hand, Buckley has been a breakout star of 2024, going 3-0 and extending his current win streak to five. One more win over Covington could be the cherry atop the year-end sundae that puts Buckley at the forefront of title contender talks in the new year.
Who comes out on top? Let’s take a look.
Betting odds courtesy of BetMGM.
170 pounds: Colby Covington (+220) vs. Joaquin Buckley (-275)
This is the last hurrah for Covington.
The 36-year-old “Chaos” turns 37 in February and has been remarkably inactive in recent years. Somehow, Buckley represents the first non-champion opponent coming off a win to face Covington since he won interim gold against Rafael dos Anjos in 2018. He’s 2-3 in his last five with losses to Kamaru Usman and Leon Edwards, the latter of which was his most recent out in December 2023.
UFC 296 was arguably the worst performance of Covington’s career and he claims to have broken his foot in the early moments, kicking the elbow of Edwards. His usual high-pace and volume striking takedown style was largely absent until the later rounds when a finish was needed. At his best, that’s what Covington is. A weaponized cardio machine with nonstop in-your-face-wrestling.
We’ve seen the 30-year-old Buckley bested or outwrestled by worse wrestlers than the aging Covington. He’s going to get taken down in the fight — possibly multiple times. The problem for Covington is his lack of finishing ability. A rib injury TKO is the Clovis, California native’s lone stoppage win since his 2016 TKO of Max Griffin.
Buckley can afford to drop a round or two to Covington because he packs cannonballs in his gloves. As seen in his recent big knockout of Stephen “Wonderboy” Thompson this past October, Buckley only needs one shot — no matter how poorly the fight can play out for him.
Covington’s been rocked before and declined in performance against rising high-level competitors. This matchup has all the makings of a rough result for the three-time title challenger. Buckley will make it six straight wins with his most important knockout yet.
Pick: Buckley
145 pounds: Cub Swanson (+130) vs. Billy Quarantillo (-160)
Cub Swanson still has violence to deliver.
The WEC OG Swanson is approaching fight No. 44 (29-14) in his thrilling career when he collides with Billy Quarantillo. Swanson, 41, is clearly in the twilight of his career, returning to featherweight two fights ago after a stint at bantamweight. Despite this stage, Swanson has caught a second wind with a strong unanimous decision win over Hakeem Dawodu before a controversial split decision loss to fellow veteran Andre Fili.
Swanson’s a solid and powerful boxer, who mixes in his kicks brutally when comfortable and able to disregard takedown threats. Quarantillo will be happy to engage in the potential war, attempting to take the action to the mat if needed.
“Billy Q” isn’t in the “spring chicken” category either, but he has less wear and tear on him and can put anyone’s lights out — whether with punches or knees. Unfortunately for the legendary featherweight Swanson, Quarantillo’s versatile offense will be too much for him en route to a late TKO loss.
Pick: Quarantillo
125 pounds: Manel Kape (-375) vs. Bruno Gustavo da Silva (+290)
Manel Kape’s UFC career has been such a bizarre and unfortunate ride.
I had extremely high hopes for the former RIZIN bantamweight champion. After a hesitant UFC debut against the now-flyweight champion Alexandre Pantoja, “Starboy” never quite returned to that same confidence level as seen in Japan.
Nonetheless, Kape is still one of the best flyweights in the world, and matchmaking him against Bruno Gustavo da Silva is admittedly odd when looking at the rankings. However, Silva has become a terror since his three-fight winless streak to start his UFC run. The Brazilian has won four in a row all by finish (3 KOs, 1 submission).
Kape, 31, is simply the more seasoned and talented competitor overall. A sharp and patient striker when necessary, Kape has explosive punches and takedowns that will give Silva problems. Silva will have to land first, but Kape won’t give him the chance. A rebound win looms for the former champion after his controversial unanimous decision loss to Muhammad Mokaev this past July.
Pick: Kape
205 pounds: Vitor Petrino (-300) vs. Dustin Jacoby (+240)
Dustin Jacoby will be fighting for his job this weekend.
A once-excellent story of resurgence, the 36-year-old Jacoby appears to be reaching his limit after losing four of his last five fights. The last time we saw the former Glory Kickboxing champion he was melted in two minutes by Dominick Reyes this past June.
Vitor Petrino is also targeting a rebound with this matchup. Anthony Smith dealt the Brazilian prospect loss No. 1 in his 12-fight career at UFC 301 in May and he’s aligned with a favorable matchup at UFC Tampa.
Petrino, 27, is more than content to throw hands with opponents, scoring knockouts in 7 of his 11 wins. Jacoby is the superior and more technical striker with his strong kickboxing background. The problem here is his chin and fading defense.
Pick: Petrino
135 pounds: Adrian Yanez (+175) vs. Daniel Marcos (-210)
Bantamweight bangers never let us down. Adrian Yanez vs. Daniel Marcos is your frontrunner for the fight of the night.
In Marcos, we have a talented prospect out of Peru looking to make a massive impression by taking out the ever-talented Yanez and going 17-0. He was a champion in the 300 Sparta fight promotion in his home country and successfully defended his title a whopping six times before his arrival through Contender Series.
Yeah, this dude has been unstoppable.
Marcos has been a punishing striker throughout his career thus far. Ask his UFC debut opponent Saimon Oliveira, who crumbled at the heavy hands and knees of Marcos in Round 2. When Marcos smells blood, combos and flurries are in your immediate future.
Yanez, 31, has long been touted as one of the best boxers on the rise in UFC. He reminded the world what he was capable of his last time out, scoring a vintage knockout against Vinicius Salvador in Round 1.
Momentum is a fighter’s best friend and both these guys have it. Marcos may have more tools in his toolbox, favoring him rightfully in the eyes of oddsmakers. But Yanez is just clean with his punches, and you’re in trouble when he connects. It’s a coin flip for me. I’m sticking with the tried and true. Yanez has fought the better competition and plays spoiler.
Pick: Yanez
205 pounds: Navajo Stirling (-700) vs. Tuco Tokkos (+500)
This is a showcase to open the main card, ladies and gentlemen.
Tuco Tokkos has been on the receiving end of highlight reels in his last two losses to Oumar Sy and Zhang Mingyang — the latter of which absolutely obliterated him. Unfortunately for Tokkos, Navajo Stirling is an Australia smashing machine.
Undefeated at 5-0, Stirling stands at 6-foot-4 and is built for the division. He’s knocked out every opponent but his first. That’s not to say Tokkos isn’t also a long fighter, standing at the same height. But Tokkos is a former middleweight opposed to Stirling previously fought at heavyweight.
The 27-year-old City Kickboxing product is going to catch another body this weekend.
Pick: Stirling
Preliminary notes
Joel Alvarez, Joel Alvarez, Joel Alvarez, Joel Alvarez. … Did I mention Joel Alvarez?
“Must-see TV” is a common description used in our prelim notes and the Spaniard couldn’t embody that any more than everyone on this card. 24 wins, 17 submissions and 4 knockouts. And he’s fighting Drakkar Klose, who will provide a sneaky banger here and there.
Saying anything else about the prelims is pointless because this is all you should care about.
Quick picks:
Michael Johnson (-225) def. Ottman Azaitar (+180)
Joel Álvarez (-450) def. Drakkar Klose (+340)
Sean Woodson (-155) def. Fernando Padilla (+130)
Felipe Lima (-250) def. Miles Johns (+200)
Miranda Maverick (-550) def. Jamey-Lyn Horth (+400)
Davey Grant (-110) def. Ramon Taveras (-110)
Josefine Lindgren Knutsson (-250) def. Piera Rodriguez (+195)