(Bloomberg) — Voters in Uruguay are set to cast their ballots Sunday in a presidential race that’s being overshadowed by a contentious pension overhaul.
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While potential fiscal fallout from the social-security proposal has investors on edge, the main campaign features a resurgent left-wing party seeking to unseat the ruling center-right coalition by tapping into angst over crime and the economy.
Polls show the opposition Broad Front presidential candidate Yamandu Orsi handily beating his closest rival, Alvaro Delgado of the incumbent coalition’s National Party, but falling short of the absolute majority needed to avoid a runoff election against Delgado on Nov. 24.
“The most likely outcome is we don’t elect a president on Sunday and go to a second round,” said Mariana Pomies, director at pollster Cifra.
The presidency and all seats in Congress are up for grabs in general elections held once every five years in which voting is obligatory for Uruguay’s 2.7 million registered voters. President Luis Lacalle Pou is prevented by law from seeking a second consecutive term.
Protest votes for smaller parties could deny both the Broad Front and the incumbent coalition control of the lower house and possibly even the Senate, Pomies said. But while recent campaigns elsewhere in Latin America have seen populists with radical plans putting society on edge, Uruguay is defying that trend with the major parties fielding predictable mainstream politicians.
Orsi, a two-term governor of the second most populous department in the country of 3.4 million people wedged between Argentina and Brazil, has pledged to boost economic growth, fight crime and overhaul the social security system. The 57-year-old former history teacher tapped respected economist Gabriel Oddone to serve as his finance minister.
Delgado, who served as a senior aide to Lacalle Pou, promises to continue the National Party’s pro-business policies to make Uruguay the most developed country in Latin America by 2030. He has also pledged to crack down on crime amid a surge in murders since 2022. The 55-year-old former lawmaker named ex-central bank chief Diego Labat as his likely finance chief.
Uruguay votes amid the backdrop of an economy the central bank sees growing 3.5% this year, after a decade of growth that averaged about 1% a year. The post-pandemic recovery, however, hasn’t lifted all boats equally.