For most folks, history is in your favour if you’re dreaming of a white Christmas this year.
The historical odds of snow on the ground on Christmas morning are looking good for a vast swath of Canada—but could we have a repeat of last year’s ‘green Christmas’ for most of the country’s population?
It’s a dicey proposition for a few key regions of the country.
DON’T MISS: What exactly makes for a ‘white Christmas’?
Meteorologists have a specific definition for what constitutes a ‘white Christmas.’
We have to have at least 2 cm of snow on the ground at 7:00 a.m. on Christmas Day in order for an official declaration of a white Christmas. It doesn’t matter if it’s freshly fallen or a snowpack that’s been there for days—if there’s 2 cm present at the critical moment, it counts!
Most communities across the country have decent odds of seeing snow on the ground on Dec. 25.
Based on historical records, a snowy Christmas morning is a virtual guarantee across the Prairies and the territories up north, while we’ve had more white Christmases than not in cities like Ottawa and Montreal. Historically, snow present on the big day is a coin-flip in Toronto proper.
Last year was a decidedly green Christmas across much of the country as El Niño influenced a warmer-than-normal pattern from coast to coast. Even cities where it’s almost always snowy on Christmas morning—like Regina—saw bare ground on Dec. 25, 2023.
We don’t have to worry about El Niño gumming up the works this year. We’ve got a neutral pattern in the Pacific Ocean, and even one that’s tilting a bit toward what we would typically see during a La Niña event.
Unfortunately, it’s too early to know the exact storm track for systems two weeks ahead of time. Be sure to check back with us on Dec. 18 for the release of our holiday snow report.