In the Lamar Jackson era, the Ravens have excelled when it comes to beating NFC teams. They’ve only lost twice to the other conference with No. 8 under center — the idea is that those NFC opponents don’t see Jackson regularly and have no idea how to defend him on game day.
That narrative was certainly in play Sunday when Baltimore visited the Giants and did whatever it wanted. Jackson had his best fantasy game of the year in Week 15, throwing for five touchdowns and tacking on 65 rushing yards in a glorious 36.10-point afternoon. The Ravens scored the 35-14 victory, even covering the massive 16-point spread.
The ball rarely hit the ground Sunday — Jackson completed 21-of-25 passes for 290 yards and wasn’t intercepted. Rashod Bateman (3-80-2) caught two of the touchdowns, and Mark Andrews (2-24-1) had the first of the day. The other scores went to non-playable fantasy options — Justice Hill and Devontez Walker.
That’s the fantasy rub with the Baltimore passing game at times — it’s a splintered target tree and the volume often isn’t there. Zay Flowers (5-63-0) is usually open but lacks the opportunity to be a target hog. It’s not uncommon for Jackson to land well under 30 attempts, either. Baltimore has the fifth-lowest pass rate in the league. The idea is to gash opponents with the running game, then rip out their hearts with occasional chunk plays in the passing game.
But with Jackson throwing five touchdowns all outside the 10-yard line, Derrick Henry was the odd man out Sunday. He didn’t score a touchdown for the third straight game and had a season-low 67 yards. This goes down as a fluke result, and Henry will surely be needed more against credible opponents Pittsburgh and Houston the next two weeks. But for Henry to reach his fantasy projection, you always need that touchdown deodorant. He wasn’t targeted Sunday, and only has 13 catches on the year.
Jackson needs a prove-it game against Pittsburgh next week, too. He’s just 2-5 against the Steelers, and struggled in a loss to them a month ago (66.1 rating, just one touchdown). But those are tomorrow’s concerns. There’s a good chance Jackson carried you to a playoff win here.
Veteran WRs go off
While an in-his-prime Jackson was one of the quarterback stars (only Josh Allen outscored Jackson on the Sunday slate), two back-nine receivers took control of the wideout board. Davante Adams exploded for a 9-198-2 clinic against Jacksonville, and Mike Evans made two end-zone visits against the Chargers.
The Jets aren’t going anywhere this year, but Adams has stepped up his play since the bye. He’s scored in three straight games, fashioning a snappy 23-373-4 line over that span. The Rams defense is a cushy draw in Week 16. Maybe Aaron Rodgers has some streaming value before this disappointing season ends.
Evans needed a strong finish to push past 1,000 receiving yards for the 11th straight year, but Sunday’s clutch game produced 159 yards, an excellent positive step. He’s already punched a Hall of Fame ticket in my eyes. Tampa Bay has been one of the league’s best carnival teams in 2024, and Dallas might put up a scoring fight in next week’s Sunday night game. Evans is the rare fantasy pick who’s never landed in the disappointment file — and he has time to make sure this season ends on a positive note.
Josh Allen delivers again
Sometimes I think there are three keys to winning at fantasy football this year: drafting well, working the waiver wire and avoiding Josh Allen. Buffalo’s MVP in waiting had another ridiculous day, shredding the Lions for four touchdowns (two by air, two by land) to go with 362 passing yards and 69 rushing yards, racing to the top of the QB board yet again. That’s 93.16 fantasy points combined over the last two weeks.
Allen’s upside is dreamy but so is his floor. He had two QB1 finishes in September and he’s been especially consistent since Week 6: QB5, QB6 QB14, QB7, QB7, QB7, QB3, QB1 (a record-setting performance), QB1 (with three games left to go). Only boredom can stop Allen when he faces the Patriots and Jets the next two weeks.
It always feels like Allen does his best running later in the season, and that should carry over into the NFL playoffs, when the games mean the most.
Mixed bag for rest of Bills’ passing game
While Buffalo’s offense is always routed through Allen, its pass-catching projection is a tricky business. Consider Amari Cooper, who somehow had 14 targets last week (and a 6-95-0 line) then wasn’t targeted in the win against the Lions. We’ve learned to set our fantasy watches by the consistent Khalil Shakir (6-39-1) and the tight ends were useful (Dalton Kincaid had a solid 4-53-0 line), but how could we ever see Ty Johnson catching five passes for 114 yards? Keon Coleman got loose for a 64-yard reception, but he was targeted just twice.
Star running backs come up short
Allen essentially clinching the 2024 MVP means Saquon Barkley can focus on the Offensive Player of the Year award. Barkley had the rare fantasy dud on Sunday, averaging under four yards a pop and not scoring a touchdown against Pittsburgh. Barkley’s touchdowns are always somewhat tenuous, as the Eagles always parcel the short touchdowns to Jalen Hurts (he had another one Sunday). Barkley’s 13 scores come from an average of 28.5 yards, and he doesn’t have a single plunge from the one-yard line (Hurts has 11).
Henry and Barkley weren’t the only veteran backs who stumbled Sunday. Joe Mixon was held to 23 yards on 12 carries against Miami. He didn’t score a touchdown either, though a 5-33-0 receiving line helped a little. Mixon has miraculously overcome Houston’s poor offensive line most of the year, but lanes weren’t available Sunday. His playoff schedule isn’t fun, with Kansas City and Baltimore waiting the next two weeks.
Note: I’ll continue to add Week 15 analysis as the night unfolds.