(Bloomberg) — Western Australia is on track for a surprise bumper wheat crop, despite low rainfall earlier in the season that had been expected to crimp output.
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Australia’s top wheat-producing state is set to produce 10.33 million tons in the 2024/25 season, according to the Grain Industry Association of Western Australia. That would be the third-biggest harvest on record, and is about 1 million tons higher that what the group was expecting in September, when a lack of spring rain was threatening output.
An unexpected increase in wheat exports from Australia may help alleviate concerns about potential disruptions to shipments from the Black Sea region as the war in Ukraine intensifies. Wheat futures are on track for their biggest weekly gain in two months due to nervousness over the escalating conflict.
Wheat crops are yielding more than expected, said agronomist and GIWA report writer Michael Lamond, who lives on a farm on the western rim of the grain belt. “The leaves didn’t look to great prior to harvest, with damaged and yellowing leaves. But they’re yielding well.”
The Western Australian harvest has, however, been delayed by heavy rain this week. Those wet conditions are expected to continue into next week, according to weather forecaster Maxar.
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The Australia Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Sciences predicted in September that the country as a whole would produce 31.8 million metric tons of wheat in the 2024-25 season, 23% higher than the previous harvest.
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