The rather grim headlines of one point, one goal scored, and 10 conceded so far says much about Kilmarnock’s start in the Premiership as tough fixtures while juggling European football has taken its toll.
However, if Derek McInnes digs a little deeper – which he will have done – there are signs of encouragement.
Killie’s expected goals rating of 4.88 means they are creating better chances than several other teams in the league, but have struggled to finish them.
Their appalling conversion rate of 2.5%, the joint worst in the league, speaks to the latter fact.
While that only adds to the gloom, the good news is if performances continue to yield chances that statistic is likely to improve.
Teams do not often have such a big gap between goals and expected goals over a longer period of time.
The same logic applies down the other end, where Kilmarnock’s expected goals against rating sits at 6.88, despite having conceded 10 in total.
Playing Celtic and Aberdeen, two of the most efficient teams in front of goal this season, plus Joe Newell‘s unlikely strike for Hibs from out wide, will have exacerbated those numbers.
McInnes has spoken about how the intensity of their running has dropped during Sunday matches after European games, and this is also borne out in some of the metrics which examine pressing.
Without European football we could see Killie get back to full intensity, which could allow them to sharpen up in both boxes.
That would see them start to climb the league rather than be cast adrift. Now, they have to go and do it.
