After a record-breaking Halloween evening, Ontario and Quebec are bracing for another unseasonably warm surge this week, pushing temperatures close to 20°C in early November––a comfort, perhaps, but also a sign of deeper climate shifts.
In the cozy season of fall, extreme warmth slips under the radar. This is “comfort bias” in action, our natural tendency to overlook climate change when the weather feels pleasant. Instead of worrying about record highs, we enjoy the break from winter’s chill, while the atmosphere behaves more like late September than November.
DON’T MISS: Snowy surprises can blanket Canada during a typical November
Temperatures seem comfortable and your furnace gets a break from its usual November hum. But this autumn warmth masks a more extreme pattern developing in the atmosphere.
Let’s set the scene for this upcoming heat––and then flip the script to see what the opposite extreme would look like.
First, what’s the normal high and low for Nov. 5 and 6?
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Windsor: 11°C/3°C
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London: 10°C/1°C
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Hamilton: 10°C/2°C
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Toronto: 10°C/2°C
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Barrie: 9°C/0°C
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Ottawa: 9°C/0°C
On Tuesday evening, the temperature will be hovering close to 20 C, a similar fashion to Halloween night, meaning temperatures will be 15 degrees above normal!
What if the warmth was actually cold?
Now, let’s flip the script.
Imagine if Tuesday evening’s temperature were more than 15 degrees below normal instead of above, like -12°C, the streets would be lined with people bundled in winter gear, breath visible in the crisp air, and furnaces working overtime.
An icy November would be front-page news, and winter habits would have to be enacted almost immediately.
Here’s the scenario with Tuesday evening more than 30 degrees cooler than what was forecast.
That would completely alter the commuters’ routine, and much less time would be spent outdoors. Instead, we’re enjoying exceptionally warm weather that might seem harmless, but it’s an indication of a climate system where swings from the normal are increasing in frequency.
So, while a warm November feels like a gift, it’s a warning.
These patterns aren’t just anomalies, but they’re part of a larger trend: Our climate system is warming, and with it, comes the disruption of familiar seasons and routines.