This year was a mixed bag for the large automakers, with sales in the US climbing and prices holding steady for the most part. But changes are coming for the industry — whether on the domestic front with a new administration or the threat of cheaper, foreign competition.
S&P Global Mobility projects US sales will hit a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of 16.2 million units in 2025, an estimated increase of 1.2% from a projected 16.0 million units in 2024, which S&P says still reflects an uncertain environment for auto sales in the US.
“Vehicle pricing levels are expected to decline but remain high; interest rates are expected to shift further downwards, but inflation levels are anticipated to remain sticky, and new vehicle inventory should also progress, but careful management is expected too,” said Chris Hopson, manager of North American light vehicle sales forecasting for S&P Global Mobility, in its 2025 report.
With that said, let’s take a look at what to expect from major automakers in the US next year, starting with the big three.
Click here for Yahoo Finance’s Tesla 2024 year in review and 2025 look ahead.
LOS ANGELES, CALIFORNIA – NOVEMBER 22: The Chevrolet Silverado EV is on display during the 2024 LA Auto Show at the Los Angeles Convention Center on November 22, 2024 in Los Angeles, California. (Photo by Josh Lefkowitz/Getty Images) ·Josh Lefkowitz via Getty Images
The biggest of the Big Three experienced a strong 2024 with robust sales of its generally higher-priced vehicles, like trucks, SUVs, and EVs.
GM (GM) shareholders were rewarded with the stock up 25% for the year, buoyed by GM’s aggressive accelerated share repurchase (ASR) programs, a type of buyback. GM announced a $6 billion ASR in June of this year, following a $10 billion ASR in November of 2023.
After a Q3 in which GM said it took market share, the rest of the year was set up for success. GM said its inventory stood at around 627,000 vehicles entering Q4, which is around 50 to 60 days of supply entering a typically busy holiday period, and incentives in Q3 were 4.5% of average transaction price, which the automaker said was 2% below the industry.
New EVs are coming in 2025, with the Cadillac Vistiq, Optiq, Escalade IQ, and Chevrolet Bolt EV. This comes after the company refreshed the Chevy Equinox and Traverse, GMC Acadia and Terrain, and Buick Enclave.
But GM might have some issues with its EVs if the tax credit goes away under the Trump administration.
“If those EV models, specifically for GM, because they made some launches that are doing fairly well in the past three months — if they’re not eligible for tax credits next year, it is going to impact their ability to scale and ultimately our growth assumption,” S&P Global autos sector lead Nishit Madlani told Yahoo Finance.
2024 Mustang Mach-E electric vehicles are displayed at a Ford dealership Sunday, Jan. 21, 2024, in Broomfield, Colo. (AP Photo/David Zalubowski) ·ASSOCIATED PRESS
GM’s archrival, Ford, is coming off a good sales year too. But all has not been well for the Dearborn, Mich.-based automaker.
With the cash cow F-150 pickup and Expedition full-size vehicles updated in 2024, Ford’s 2025 will consist of updates to the Mustang and Ford Transit commercial van along with the release of the $300,000 Mustang GTD supercar. The company has seen sales jump for its hybrid offerings like the Maverick pickup, F-150 hybrid PowerBoost models, and Escape CUV, and will continue to shift production toward those units.
Wall Street is looking for better execution from Ford as well as cost discipline.
“There are indications that the profit story for them is not trending in the direction we had expected a year ago, when we raised them to investment rate,” Madlani said. “They had some warranty costs. They had some supplier stability issues that we haven’t seen at other automakers. So that’s why there’s some questions internally around execution from the management team there as well.”
Ford will give a full update on its EV business outlook and profitability in the first half of 2025.
RICHMOND, CALIFORNIA – APRIL 05: Jeep Wrangler 4Xe plug-in hybrids are displayed on the sales lot at Hilltop Chrysler Jeep Dodge Ram on April 05, 2024 in Richmond, Calif. (Justin Sullivan/Getty Images) ·Justin Sullivan via Getty Images
The situation isn’t much better at Stellantis, which has Dodge, Ram, Jeep, Chrysler, Fiat, and others in its portfolio.
A management shake-up will bring a new CEO in 2025 and a revamped plan for its automobiles and trucks. The delayed EV push for the automaker will see changes as well, with gas-powered cars joining the ranks of EVs, which will share the same platform.
This comes after sales slumped for the automaker, with inventory building up and dealers having to slash elevated prices to move vehicles off the lots. “We’re grinding through a transition,” CFO Doug Ostermann said following the release of disappointing Q3 sales.
For 2025 the company has promised lower prices for its existing models, like Jeep SUVs, with the addition of engine choices like V6s and V8s for customers who did not want to see those powertrain choices go away.
And new models are on the way too. In terms of new product launches, the all-electric Dodge Charger Daytona is coming with a gas-powered version as well, an all-electric Jeep Wagoneer S is on the roster, and the Ram 1500 Ramcharger range-extended hybrid pickup will be pushed forward to 2025, jumping ahead of the all-electric Ram REV EV pickup. It should be noted that the Ram trucks were supposed to arrive in 2024.
While S&P’s Madlani notes Stellantis has seen some improvement in terms of inventory management, there are deeper issues to work through, such as its mismanagment of production and demand in the first place. S&P ratings has a negative outlook on Stellantis at the moment.
Visitors check details of a car at the New York International Auto Show 2024 in New York, the United States, on March 29, 2024. (Liu Yanan/Xinhua via Getty Images) ·Xinhua News Agency via Getty Images
The world’s largest automaker — and the Big Three’s biggest competitor — is having a banner year in the US, with year-to-date sales through Q3 up 5.5% and its “electrified vehicle” sales up a whopping 58% year to date.
Powering those electrified sales are its Camry hybrids, RAV4 hybrid crossover, and even the new Tacoma that comes in mild hybrid form. And, of course, the Prius — the hybrid king that came to US shores 20 years ago is still setting the pace for hybrid sales.
This year, Toyota went all out in the US with an all-new Camry and Tacoma pickup, two of its major volume sellers. It also relaunched the Landcruiser SUV and brought out minor updates to the Corolla, Sienna, and Crown, to name a few.
Coming in 2025 is the new 4Runner, a midsize go-anywhere SUV with a devoted following that will be coming with — you guessed it — a hybrid powertrain.
Toyota says hybrids are what Americans want, and pickup and SUV offerings like the Tacoma and 4Runner will cater to that demand.
One note of caution for Toyota is the coming merger of Honda and Nissan. While the situation won’t likely change much in the near term (with the deal looking to close in 2026), it will allow the two Japanese automakers to match Toyota in size.
“There is potential for a merged company to be better prepared to address the competitive threat from the newer players, as well as to be more competitive with Toyota,” S&P Global Mobility analyst Stephanie Brinley said in a note published earlier this month.
Volkswagen ID.Buzz is displayed during the New York International Auto Show 2024, where automobile manufacturers introduce their newest models to the world, in New York, United States on March 27, 2024. (Fatih Aktas/Anadolu via Getty Images) ·Anadolu via Getty Images
Germany’s Volkswagen (VWAGY), once the crown jewel of the country’s automotive sector and formerly the world’s No. 1 automaker, had a rough year.
The company’s slump in important regions like Europe (with threats of a major labor strike averted for the time being) and China is a major problem, and development difficulties with its in-house software and EV development have led to costly delays.
Meanwhile, the company’s sole EV offering — the ID.4 — has seen sales cut by half in Q3, and the ID.Buzz van just went on sale, with a costly starting price of about $60,000. Another concern: There are no hybrids on offer at the moment in the US, a big miss considering their popularity.
VW says the upcoming all-new Tiguan in 2025 won’t have hybrid power until 2026 at the latest, which is a concern as it is VW’s top seller in the US. The full-size Atlas won’t get hybrid power until 2026, either.
VW’s big bet on electrification remains with EVs at the moment, which could be a tough sell. With most of its current models updated or refreshed last year or this fall with the 2025 model year, VW does not at the moment have anything big planned for next year.
In fact, VW’s biggest new push in the US is with Scout Motors, its wholly owned startup that will make EV and hybrid versions of SUV and pickup adventure vehicles using Rivian tech.
But those vehicles won’t be in showrooms until 2027 at the earliest, which means VW will have to power through with its current portfolio through 2025 and beyond.
Pras Subramanian is a reporter for Yahoo Finance. You can follow him on X and onInstagram
