Are Nottingham Forest showing signs of ‘doing a Leicester 2016’?
Hang on, hear us out first…
The broad picture is this:
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Forest are third in the Premier League – their highest position since 1998 – after winning three on the bounce in the top flight for the first time since 1999. Forest are flying.
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Their opening 10 games mirror Leicester’s 2015-16 start when the Foxes stunned the sport as they won the Premier League at odds of 5,000-1.
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Forest’s five wins, four draws and one defeat is identical to Leicester’s record, although they have three more clean sheets than Claudio Ranieri’s side did nine years ago and a better goal difference by seven.
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Striker Chris Wood – a different player but just as talismanic as Jamie Vardy – has eight goals and they have the second-best defence in the division, having only avoided relegation by four points last season.
Wonderful Wood and marvellous Milenkovic
Forest’s search for a new striker to support and challenge Wood ultimately failed as Eddie Nketiah joined Crystal Palace from Arsenal and PSV striker Santiago Gimenez remained at the Philips Stadium.
“In the transfer window we were looking for many options that could help us. The main thing was we looked for someone who could improve us and someone who wanted to be with us. These two things are very important,” said Nuno, tellingly, in September.
It looked they would be short up front but Wood’s electric start has neutralised any fears.
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The 32-year-old New Zealand international has scored over half of Forest’s 14 goals this season and has 22 goals in 30 Premier League starts since making his move from Newcastle permanent in June 2023
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Nineteen of those league goals have come under Nuno since the Portuguese boss arrived last December.
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Only Manchester City’s Erling Haaland has scored more non-penalty goals than Wood’s 18 since 23 December 2023.
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Wood also has the fourth best conversion rate (32.76%) in the Premier League since Nuno arrived and is over-performing his expected goals figure (14.04) by almost five goals.
Nuno has refused to tread softly with Wood, especially after international duty, saying the striker is a “competitor” and will always be ready.
While Wood has scored the goals, the management will always highlight that their foundations start in defence and Matz Sels – having become the undisputed number one – has kept the joint-most clean sheets, with Andre Onana, in the Premier League this season.
The arrival of Nikola Milenkovic from Fiorentina – for a little less than the reported £12m – has already looked a bargain and he has formed an impressive partnership with Brazilian Murillo at the back.
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Last season Forest conceded 23 of their 68 goals from set-pieces, four more than relegated Luton and Sheffield United, but this season they have let in just one.
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Last season’s figure was almost double their expected set-piece goals against of 12.25, highlighting Forest’s fragility from corners and free-kicks last term.
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In a stark transformation, this season Forest have the best XG against figure from set pieces – just 1.23 – in the league.
It is too simplistic to say the big man at the back and the big man at the front have Forest ticking – but it is definitely working.
Squad turnover from summer 2022
While it looks like Forest have evolved quickly from the side which finished 17th last season, following a four-point deduction, seven of the players from Saturday’s 3-0 win over West Ham started the final day victory at Burnley last term.
Boss Nuno Espirito Santo had the luxury of a pre-season this year, and while the club added just six senior signings in the summer, defender Milenkovic and midfielder Elliot Anderson instantly upped the first-team quality.
Indeed, that relatively calm window was a change from the summer of 2022 when Forest signed a then-record 22 players following promotion.
It has been evolution, not revolution, at the City Ground but while there have been tweaks in the last 11 months since Nuno replaced Steve Cooper, they have moved on quickly from two years ago.
In Forest’s 1-0 win over Crystal Palace last month, with Morgan Gibbs-White suspended, just one player signed during that 2022 spending spree started – and that was goalkeeper Dean Henderson, who was playing for the opposition.
There was an agreement at the start of the season the club needed a campaign of anonymity, a mid-table finish to avoid the spotlight following two seasons of struggle, controversy and chaos.
A points deduction in March, following a profit and sustainability breach, came before a controversial social media post about VAR Stuart Attwell a month later which ultimately saw the club fined £750,000 this season.
With owner Evangelos Marinakis currently midway through a five-game for spitting towards officials – he lost his appeal on Monday – Forest have snubbed the quiet life again. But it is on the pitch where they are making the most noise this season.
Nuno’s Premier League resurgence
Nuno returned to the Premier League after a spell in Saudi Arabia and there were a few doubters when he replaced Steve Cooper in December last year.
He had won the Saudi Pro League and the Super Cup with Al-Ittihad but after a short and difficult time at Tottenham, Forest fans would have been forgiven for being underwhelmed at his appointment.
His four-year spell at Wolves ended as things went stale at Molineux and the squad was unable to maintain their spectacular rise from the Championship to the Europa League quarter-finals.
But before the decline, he built a squad – with the help of agent Jorge Mendes – which included young talent like Ruben Neves combined with the experience of Joao Moutinho.
He is slowly doing the same at the City Ground with the arrival of six senior players, including defender Milenkovic who has helped Forest tighten up at the back and concede just seven goals so far. Only Liverpool – six – have shipped less.
Those who have covered Nuno at either Wolves, Spurs or now Forest know he is not the most expressive in news conferences.
He is a meticulous planner of what happens on the pitch which, over the course of a year, has steadily improved prospects at the City Ground, although he has still benefited from the foundations predecessor Cooper laid.
Cooper’s influence and relationship was crucial to signing Gibbs-White – who he won the Under-17 World Cup with while England manager – while the now-Leicester boss brought Wood to the club and kept them in the Premier League.
Nuno has built on that success, although he has let his emotions get the better of him on the touchline – despite promising to rein in the criticism of officials – and in August he was fined £40,000 and given a one-game suspended ban after his comments following the 2-0 defeat at Everton last season.
That suspension was activated when he was dismissed for contesting Gibbs-White’s red card in the draw at Brighton in September, meaning he has watched Forest’s last three games from the stands.
Can Forest’s form last?
Despite Nuno and owner Marinakis’ disciplinary issues, Forest are on a three-game winning run which has propelled them to third.
Trips to Arsenal, Manchester City and Manchester United come swiftly after the international break, which starts after Sunday’s league visit of Newcastle, while they also host Aston Villa and Tottenham before the end of the year.
Those who are sceptical of their chances will point to the fact that five of their 10 games so far have come against the bottom seven, while their last three games have been against Crystal Palace, Leicester and West Ham, none of whom have started the season well.
But Forest have gone to Anfield to inflict leaders Liverpool’s only defeat this season and have also claimed draws at Chelsea and Brighton.
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Opta’s expected points model has Forest in fifth and suggests they are over-performing their game statistics by 2.23 points.
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Compared to last season, Forest have turned an away defeat by Liverpool into a win and losses to Bournemouth (h) and Brighton (a) into draws.
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Forest have had the fourth-easiest opening 10 fixtures but they now face the fourth-most difficult fixtures for their next 10 outings.
Sunday’s visit of Newcastle – who won at the City Ground in the Carabao Cup in August – starts a spell which will test Forest’s staying power and by Christmas it will be clear whether they can sustain their form.