Monday, December 23, 2024

Why does Dan Campbell go for it on 4th down so much? His success by the numbers

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Dan Campbell took over as head coach of the Detroit Lions ahead of the 2021 season. Since then, he’s gone 26-27-1 in the regular season and led a turnaround culminating in the Lions’ first home playoff game in 30 years.

His tenure’s featured one of the better offenses in the league with coordinator Ben Johnson, quarterback Jared Goff, wide receiver Amon-Ra St. Brown and one of the top offensive lines in the NFL. He’s also built a reputation as an aggressive coach, especially on fourth down.

Here’s why he goes for it so much and how successful he is:

Why does Dan Campbell go for it on fourth down so much?

Campbell preached aggressiveness in his introductory press conference back in 2021. That translated immediately on fourth downs as the Lions set the NFL record for fourth down attempts that season with 41.

In the 2023 NFC Championship game, Campbell went for it on fourth down at the 49ers’ 30-yard line instead of trying a game-tying field goal with less than eight minutes left in the game. The Lions did not convert and San Francisco scored on the ensuing drive to take a 10-point lead.

“I just felt really good about us converting and getting our momentum and not letting them play long ball,” he said. “They were bleeding the clock out, that’s what they do and I wanted to get the upper hand back.”

Getting and keeping momentum’s been key to Campbell in those situations. But he also changed his stance during Detroit’s mid-season turnaround to finish 9-8 in 2022.

“I’m always gonna lean on the strength of our team,” Campbell said in an interview with Dallas-based KTCK-AM’s The Hardline radio show. “I just believe in that… in 2022, we were 1-6 and I backed things down significantly and I played a little bit more ball control at times. I’m always gonna go with what our strength is and what I think is gonna help us win the game.”

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Dan Campbell fourth down stats

Since 2021, the Lions lead the league in fourth down conversions (66) and attempts (125). That 52.8% success rate is slightly above the NFL average of 51%.

Detroit’s not afraid to go for it in their own territory with a 15-of-29 success rate on fourth down on their side of the 50 under Campbell. The Lions go for it while leading more than most, too. Their 29 fourth down attempts while leading during Campbell’s tenure is tied for the second-most league-wide with Cleveland and behind only Philadelphia (33).

Other coaches have been more successful percentage-wise than Campbell on fourth down since 2021, including Philadelphia‘s Nick Sirianni (62.9%), Los Angeles‘ Sean McVay (63.6%), and Kansas City‘s Andy Reid (71.1%). But he’s far outpacing them in total attempts with 125 compared to 89 for Sirianni, 66 for McVay, and 45 for Reid.

This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: How good is Detroit’s Dan Campbell on 4th down?

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