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Despite the chatter about the risks surrounding Americans’ trip to the polls on Tuesday, election days aren’t historically that bad for the stock market.
The S&P 500 (^GSPC) rose on 8 of the 10 election days the stock market has been open since 1980. If we include both the day of and the day after the election combined, the index has been a bit more fussy, falling half of the time.
A similar story has played out for the month. The S&P 500 has fallen in 5 of the past 10 election Novembers.
But zoom out, and the story improves.
The S&P 500 has been up an average of 10.68% in the year following elections dating back to 1960. That’s right in line with the standard average return for the S&P 500 over time. It’s one of many signs that while the election could very well bring some turbulence to markets over the next few days, particularly if there isn’t a clear winner, it rarely halts the long-term trend.
“We remain mindful that while elections usually spark short-term repricings, the S&P 500 tends to post gains in all balance-of-power scenarios,” RBC Capital Markets’ Lori Calvasina wrote in a note to clients on Sunday.
Essentially, elections are no different than other risks to the market, like tensions in the Middle East, natural disasters, or worker strikes. The key question remains what any risk could mean for future company earnings.
And for elections, that means potential policies that could alter the corporate operating environment. Typically that means a split-party government, where fewer sweeping changes are passed, is the ideal backdrop for stocks.
“Checks and balances as a result of differences of opinion at the Congressional level (sometimes dramatically termed ‘gridlock’) often have served in the past … to protect what investors care most about — a healthy economy for consumers and for revenue and profit growth for business,” Oppenheimer chief investment strategist John Stoltzfus wrote in a note to clients on Monday morning.
Analyzing the past few presidential cycles furthers this point. Research from Truist co-chief investment officer Keith Lerner shows the S&P 500 grew at an annualized rate of 13% from the day President Barack Obama was elected to the night Donald Trump was elected.
From the day of the Trump win to when Joe Biden won in 2020, the index grew at an annualized rate of 14%.